Close Fight In Kerala, But UDF Has Edge, Predicts Today's Chanakya Exit Poll

The pollster has predicted that the Congress led alliance will win 69 seats (plus/minus 9)

30 Apr 2026, 12:16 · www.ndtv.com

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The Congress-led UDF is projected to win Kerala with 69 seats, but its margin over the LDF may be low
UDF is expected to gain huge support from the Christian and Muslim voters in teh state
The BJP is expected to increase its footprint, winning between 3 and 11 seats

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New Delhi:

The Congress-led UDF is heading for a victory in Kerala but its margin over the Left-led LDF could be low, indicates the exit poll by Today's Chanakya.

The UDF could wind up with 69 seats (plus/minus 9 seats) and the LDF with 64 (plus/minus 9 seats), the exit poll has predicted. This puts UDF in the 60-78 seat bracket and the UDF in the 55-73 seat bracket.

The majority mark in the 140-member assembly is 71.

The BJP, Chanakya also predicted, is likely to expand its footprint in the state, winning 7 seats (plus/minus 4 seats) meaning the range will be between 3 and 11 seats.

This time, The UDF is expected to benefit mostly from the minority vote -- 53 per cent from Christians and 62 per cent from the Muslims. Besides, it is also expected to get 31 per cent of the Scheduled Caste votes, 32 per cent of the Nair vote and 20 per cent of the Eczhava vote.

The biggest chunk of votes for the LDF is expected to come from the Scheduled Caste category (49 per cent), followed closely by the Eczhavas (49 per cent).

Yesterday, five exit polls had predicted the end of the dream run for LDF headed by Pinarayi Vijayan.

Axis My India, People's Insight, People's Pulse, and Vote Vibe had all predicted an UDF win. An aggregate of their numbers had predicted 75 seats for the UDF, and 60 seats for the LDF.

In 2021, the Left-led government had broken Kerala's decades-old revolving door system to win a consecutive second term. The LDF had won 99 seats, the UDF 41 seats and the NDA had failed to open its account. It was attributed to the leadership of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who, Axis My India exit poll concluded, is still the state's favourite Chief Minister.

This Left bloc was seen as being in a tight spot this time, contending against anti-incumbency building up over a decade. The factionalism in the CPM suddenly made headlines and critics had accused the Chief Minister of nepotism.

In this backdrop, the LDF had sharpened its attack, alleging a collusion between the ruling combine and the BJP.

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