Analysis: How Punjab's Enduring Crime-Politics Nexus Can Impact 2027 Polls

The crime-politics nexus has not only polluted the democratic process in Punjab but has also thrown the electorate into disarray and despair.

05 Aug 2026, 12:07 · NDTV

New Delhi:

The law-and-order crisis is likely to dominate the 2027 Punjab assembly election scene as the two-decade-old unholy nexus between politicians and gangsters reaches its peak. Muscle power, which was initially used to influence voters at the booth level, has now expanded beyond constituencies.

The nexus has not only polluted the democratic process in Punjab but has also thrown the electorate into disarray and despair.

Psephologists like Professor Ashutosh Kumar cite the use of muscle power as one of the reasons that has pushed Punjab's younger generation away from the elections.

The 2022 post-poll data show only 57 per cent of first-time voters exercising their franchise.

The normal vote percentage trajectory also shows a downward trend. From 78.45 per cent in 2012 and 77 per cent in 2017, it slipped to 72 per cent in 2022.

Young voters already feel disconnected from traditional politics. Seeing criminals wield political power normalised as a shortcut to influence has further reinforced their political apathy.
The loss of faith in meritocracy, combined with widespread extortion, safety concerns, and lawlessness, is pushing young people to seek education and livelihoods abroad, slowly drying up the state's talent pool.

Not only the corrupt politicians, but Punjab's films and songs have also helped normalise the gun culture, extortion networks, and political protection which entices vulnerable youth toward crime.
Criminal syndicates in Punjab and abroad easily exploit impressionable young individuals, turning them into foot soldiers for gang rivalries and narco-networks.

This has also impacted daily life as cases of narco-terrorism, public shootings and pervasive extortion rackets spiral and paralyse local businesses and compromise public safety.

Impact On 2027 Polls

The goon culture has already become a rising political flashpoint after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his recent Punjab visit, cornered the Aam Aadmi Party-led Punjab government regarding the deteriorating law and order situation and the rising crime rate.

"Law and order in Punjab is in shambles today. No one can predict when or where a gang war might break out or from which direction bullets might start flying. Even police stations are not safe as they are frequently attacked. Extortion demands are being made openly, and even attacks on police stations have become a frequent occurrence," Modi said.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has also regularly targeted AAP in his public rallies held in Punjab between 2022 and 2026 over law and order.

"In the remotely controlled AAP-Da government, law and order and development are nowhere to be found in Punjab. The state has been drowned in corruption, drugs and crime by the AAP-Da government. Law and order and development are nowhere to be found in Punjab, and the situation was going from bad to worse," Amit Shah said.

BJP's former ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal and its chief Sukhbir Badal have also highlighted the rising crime rate and gangster culture in his Punjab Bachao campaign.

"If the SAD forms government in 2027, we will legally declare gangsters and drug traffickers as terrorists to deal with them using the maximum force of the law. I warn the extortionists to flee the state or face severe consequences. Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann should immediately resign as he has lost all moral authority," Badal recently said.

During the 2022 election campaign, AAP had promised to completely eradicate organised crime gangs, extortion networks, and the political-gangster nexus that flourished under previous administrations.

However, the difference in cases registered under IPC/SLL during the Congress and AAP regimes is a marginal 1.48 per cent. So the annual crime reporting levels have remained largely comparable across both administrations.

High-profile cases registered during the AAP regime include the daylight assassination of singer and politician Sidhu Moosewala in Mansa following security cutbacks, double Rocket-Propelled Grenade (RPG) attacks targeting the Punjab Police Intelligence Headquarters in Mohali and the Sarhali police station in Tarn Taran and the violent storming of the Ajnala police station by Amritpal Singh and 'Waris Punjab De' supporters.

Who benefits from the law-and-order crisis narrative?

Psephologists say three key parties in the state - the Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal and AAP -- have faced allegations of influencing elections with muscle power; the BJP may be a beneficiary as it leverages national security, cites law and order and zero tolerance against organised crime as core brand pillars.

BJP also uses Central agency interventions (like the NIA) to argue that governance has failed, and that a strong, central-backed security apparatus is necessary to curb narco-terrorism and cross-border gangster networks.

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