Tiny shifts seen in divided ASEAN's approach to Myanmar

CEBU, Philippines — Myanmar's junta moved deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi to house arrest last week but that was not enough to ease deep divisions among ASEAN leaders over how best to engage with the pariah state.

Myanmar is still a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc but has been formally excluded from summits such as the one held in the central Philippines this week since the military junta snatched power.

The junta's 2021 coup toppled Suu Kyi's democratically elected government, triggering a bloody civil war and a crackdown on dissent.

Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos said on Friday members were "frustrated" by the years-long failure to successfully implement the bloc's five-point peace plan, suggesting a "fine-tuning" was in order.

"One of the arguments that was made is that the world has turned how many times since we started this discussion... and perhaps the context has changed a little bit," he said.

"Unfortunately, we have not seen... any progress in Myanmar," he added, describing an occasionally "emotional" meeting in Cebu.

A Thai diplomat confirmed that Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow had suggested ASEAN invite his Myanmar counterpart for a meeting.

"We need to change the way that we are engaging with Myanmar," the diplomat told reporters on Friday.

Maratee Nalita Andamo, deputy spokeswoman for Thailand's foreign affairs department, said the "proposal was for engagement with Myanmar at the political level... and it was the start of a discussion".

She said it had been received "in a positive light".

However, a potential softening of the 11-member bloc's stance is not palatable to every member.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan told reporters on Thursday his country did not believe the junta had done enough to reclaim a seat at the table.

"We still feel uncomfortable, because oppression is still taking place, atrocities towards their own citizens are still occurring," he said of Myanmar's junta.

"We want the new government formed after the election in Myanmar to truly follow what we set out in our (peace plan)," he said.

A fraying consensus

"ASEAN consensus on this matter is fraying," said Dr Siew Mun Tang, a senior fellow at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute

There were member states ready to "let bygones be bygones", given the bloc's longstanding lack of progress.

"There's no way you're going to turn back the clock, right? So let's move forward," he said in describing the view of those states.

He said Thailand's porous border with Myanmar made it an "urgent national security" issue.

Sharon Seah, a principal fellow at the same university, said the bloc had limited leverage.

"The only real leverage ASEAN has is letting (Myanmar) play with the big boys at these summits," she said, noting it still attends smaller meetings.

While it is widely believed Indonesia and Singapore are aligned with Malaysia, countries in the middle could tip the scales at some point, Seah said.

"I would say there's a fairly sizeable group of middle-group countries," she said, identifying Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and possibly Brunei as potential "fence-sitters".

"They can go either way if they see that there's actually some strategic sense in getting Myanmar to come back into the fold."

'One millimetre'

Before heading to a gala dinner that ended the summit, Marcos said ASEAN members had left their Friday afternoon session asking "what more can we do?"

Even a small shift in policy could potentially be of benefit, he said.

"Sometimes, when you move the parameters one millimetre, it makes all the difference," he said, insisting that would not mean abandoning human rights.

"We're asking all the member states, all the leaders and their ministries, what that millimetre shift could possibly be," he said.

"There are no definitive answers as yet, but we are certainly going to work on it very, very hard."