Robin Padilla leads hypothetical 2028 Senate race; Vico Sotto cracks top 5 — survey
by Kristine Daguno-Bersamina · philstarMANILA, Philippines — Sen. Robin Padilla emerged as the top choice in a hypothetical 2028 senatorial race while Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto entered the survey's top five, according to the latest Tugon ng Masa survey by OCTA Research.
Padilla garnered a 53.9% voting preference, making him the only prospective candidate with a statistically fixed first-place ranking in the survey conducted from July 4 to 11.
Sen. Raffy Tulfo came next with 47.4%, followed by former Senate president Alan Peter Cayetano with 45.4%, Sen. Grace Poe with 44.5% and Sotto with 42%.
OCTA said the four candidates are statistically tied within the second to sixth rank range because of overlapping percentages.
Rounding out the preliminary top 12 were:
- Sen. Loren Legarda — 39.0%
- Former senator Manny Pacquiao — 34.5%
- Davao City Rep. Paolo "Pulong" Duterte — 34.3%
- Broadcaster Ben Tulfo — 31.0%
- Makati Mayor Abby Binay — 26.1%
- Sen. Jinggoy Estrada — 25.5%
- Mark Lapid — 25.0%
Former Senate President Francis "Chiz" Escudero, meanwhile, posted 23.2%, placing him within the broad statistical range for the remaining Senate slots.
Other names included in the survey were former Senate president Koko Pimentel, Sen. Mark Villar, Education Secretary Sonny Angara, former presidential spokesperson Salvador Panelo, former Senator JV Ejercito, former senator Gringo Honasan, actor Philip Salvador, Philippine National Police chief Nicolas Torre III, television host Willie Revillame and former senator Leila de Lima.
OCTA stressed that the results should not be treated as a forecast of the 2028 elections, saying that the exercise was based on a hypothetical list of prospective candidates more than two years before the filing of certificates of candidacy.
It also noted that some personalities initially considered for the survey requested to be removed from the list, while those who received 1% or less were excluded from the published results.
"The findings should not be interpreted as a forecast of the 2028 senatorial election," OCTA said, adding that voter preferences could still change as political alliances, campaign dynamics, public issues and the final roster of candidates evolve.
Sotto, for one, has repeatedly said he has no interest in running for higher office after his current term in Pasig ends.
The nationwide, non-commissioned survey interviewed 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above through face-to-face interviews from July 4 to 11. It has a ±3 percentage-point margin of error at the 95% confidence level.