Four forces that may shape APC’s 2027 fortune

From governors’ growing dominance to elite recycling and post-primary disputes, the ruling party’s internal contests reveal deeper struggles over power ahead of the next general election.

Isah Jibrin, the Kogi East senator, insists he is the “authentic candidate” of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2027 election, despite losing the primary and reportedly securing no votes in his own ward.

In the same state, former Governor Yahaya Bello overcame uncertainty over his screening status to clinch the Kogi Central senatorial ticket amid protests at the party’s national secretariat. Similar scenes of rejection, protests, competing victory claims and petitions played out in Benue, Delta, Ondo, Oyo, Rivers and several other states.

What initially appeared to be isolated disputes during the APC’s nationwide primaries have increasingly revealed deeper shifts in the ruling party’s internal power structure as it prepares for 2027.

An analysis of outcomes across states points to four emerging power centres shaping the party’s direction.

Governors as dominant gatekeepers

The most visible trend from the primaries is the growing influence of governors and state political structures over candidate selection.

Across several states, governors either secured tickets for themselves or exerted decisive influence over who emerged.

In Ogun State, Governor Dapo Abiodun secured the Ogun East senatorial ticket and played a major role in ensuring that a senator, Solomon Adeola, became the party’s governorship candidate.

In Imo, Governor Hope Uzodimma defeated former Governor Rochas Okorocha for the Imo West senatorial ticket.

Recent governorship primaries held on 21–22 May further underscored this trend. In Lagos, Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat cruised to victory with more than 657,000 votes. Sitting governors or their allies swept tickets in Delta, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Niger, Borno and Oyo.

In Kwara, the Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Yakubu Danladi-Salihu, emerged as the candidate after the outgoing state governor declared support for him and withdrew his support for Abdulfatai Seriki-Gambari.

The pattern suggests that, in many states, control of party machinery and incumbency now outweigh independent ambition or grassroots mobilisation.

Political scientist Jideofor Adibe noted the near-absolutist power of state governors within their domains, describing them as modern godfathers who leverage control over resources and party structures to shape political outcomes, often eclipsing national leadership.

Analysts have long argued that governors enjoy significant advantages, including control over state party structures, local patronage networks and administrative resources. The latest primaries strongly reinforce that view.

However, despite complaints from APC members in many states, President Bola Tinubu said he is happy with the actions of the APC governors.

“I am very satisfied that governors have done well in their various states,…” the Nigerian leader said of the party’s primaries.

Consensus politics replacing open competition

The APC adopted consensus and affirmation arrangements in several states. In Lagos, Borno, Yobe, Kebbi and parts of Ogun, candidates emerged through negotiated agreements or affirmation exercises rather than competitive primaries.

Senate President Godswill Akpabio retained his ticket through affirmation in Akwa Ibom, while several incumbent senators emerged through similar arrangements.

In Bauchi, the governorship primary was postponed, as the party pushed for a consensus arrangement, with aspirants summoned to Abuja for negotiations. Eventually, former Governor Mohammed Abubakar won a crowded primary.

The push for consensus reflects a broader pattern.

Supporters argue that consensus helps preserve party unity and minimise destructive conflict. Critics, however, warn that it weakens internal democracy by transferring power from ordinary members to a handful of powerful stakeholders.

Although many aspirants who opposed the consensus eventually withdrew, the approach did not eliminate disputes. Several aggrieved candidates still challenged the outcomes through protests, petitions and public statements.

Aggrieved aspirants may pose greater risks than opposition parties

A striking feature of these primaries has been the refusal of many aspirants to accept the declared results. Notable examples include Mr Jibrin (Kogi East), former Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege (Delta), Ayo Arise (Ekiti), and multiple aspirants in Benue, Oyo and Ondo, where Adeniyi Adegbonmire narrowly escaped an attack.

In Bauchi, supporters of aspirant Nura Soro staged protests over alleged attempts to impose and manipulate the process. Appeal panels are currently reviewing numerous petitions.

Political observers warn that unresolved grievances could become more damaging than external opposition, potentially leading to litigation, defections and internal sabotage.

The APC’s experience in Zamfara during the 2019 elections, where internal nomination disputes ultimately led the courts to reject the party’s candidates, remains a cautionary tale.

Elite recycling continues to dominate candidate emergence

Despite talk of renewal, the primaries reinforced the dominance of established political figures over new entrants.

Former governors Yahaya Bello, Ifeanyi Okowa, Gabriel Suswam and Ramalan Yero secured senatorial tickets, while many incumbent senators retained their positions.

The emergence of long-serving House Speaker Danladi-Salihu in Kwara further exemplifies this trend.

By the numbers

• Seven serving governors secured senatorial tickets
• Twelve former governors emerged as candidates
• An estimated 51 incumbent senators retained their tickets (The party’s national headquarters is yet to formally announce the National Assembly candidates)
• At least 44 aspirants were disqualified during screening
• More than 70 National Assembly members are projected to lose their seats in 2027

Supporters argue that experience and established structures provide electoral advantages. Critics counter that the trend raises broader questions about political renewal and whether the party is creating space for younger leaders and fresh perspectives.

What does it mean for 2027?

The APC primaries have produced candidates for most positions, but they have also exposed unresolved tensions within the ruling party.

The contests highlighted tensions between formal party institutions and powerful individuals, between consensus and competition, and between entrenched political networks and emerging aspirants.

As the party held its presidential primary on Sunday and prepares for the broader 2027 campaign, its ability to manage these competing forces may prove as important as the victories already secured.

The governorship primaries, where governors and their preferred candidates largely swept tickets, suggest that state-level power centres remain firmly in control.

The question now is whether the party’s national leadership, particularly the influence of President Tinubu, can effectively mediate these competing interests or whether state-level actors will continue to consolidate their dominance.

How the APC navigates these internal struggles could shape not only its electoral fortunes but also the health of internal democracy within Nigeria’s largest political party, and potentially influence the tone of multiparty competition in the Fourth Republic.