Why media outlets declare US election results

Since 1848, the Associated Press of America has declared winners in US federal elections. It’s a press tradition that still exists today.

The United States is often described as the world's oldest democracy, so it's perhaps no surprise that a system built on convention and tradition would have its quirks.

One of these, since 1848, has been the role of the press "calling the race" for thousands of elections across the country. In simple terms, the media report who will eventually be declared the winner by officials.

When the tradition began, there was no internet, TV or radio, and the telegraph was just gaining a foothold. With no federal authority to coordinate elections, newsgatherers decided to take the job upon themselves, starting with the Associated Press (AP), which communicated results across the nation. 

While the number of news companies and the sophistication of technology have evolved since the 19th century, the role of the media as the unofficial election tracker has continued to provide the public the fastest estimation of who their next president may be.

But the system is not without its hitches: In the 21st century, voters rolling into booths in the westernmost parts of the US on election day may already know some results on the eastern seaboard, as the media will be able to reliably confirm certain Democratic stronghold states for Harris, and the solidly Republican ones for Trump.

On the other hand, some states — especially those slated to decide the presidency this time — could take days or weeks to call as ballots are carefully counted.

How does the media get it right on election night?

The 50 states and the capital District of Columbia are responsible for conducting the elections for the US president, Senate and House of Representatives within their boundaries.

Results from these races are officially reported by individual states, but it's the media that brings it all together for its viewers by using a mix of live official results, exit polls, voter surveys, and a deep knowledge of America's patchwork of election rules and historic trends.

From 1990, most of America's leading media organizations formed the National Election Pool (NEP), which uses exit poll data to supply press partners with live updates on all races contested on election night. 

The NEP still exists today, with a long-standing arrangement with market research firm Edison Research to supply data to the media outlets ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC and Reuters.

In 2016, the Associated Press broke from this group to develop its own product called AP VoteCast, which is now used by a number of other outlets, including Fox News, NPR, PBS, Univision, USA Today and the Wall Street Journal. DW declares results in line with the Associated Press.

While the methodologies used by these two pools are different, their principles are the same: to declare a result when it's clear the leader cannot be beaten in that race.

By using every piece of data to accurately declare a winner, this media convention also provides a level of protection against candidates at any level declaring early victory. In turn, this helps help to build confidence in an electoral system that has dropped significantly, according to research.

Exit polls, voter surveys and making the call

So, if there's no official declaration on the night, how can the media say a candidate has won a state?

"Everything we report is unofficial, but it comes from an official source," explained Joe Lenski, co-founder and executive vice president of Edison Research.

Whether from small-town election offices or large state centers, more than 3,000 Edison Research workers will call in results data to the firm's central team.

They also conduct exit surveys — simply asking voters which way they voted as they leave the polls — to get an "inside word" on ballot intent from the moment booths open on November 5.

To account for the massive number of early voters (Lenski estimates nearly half of all ballots will be cast before November 5) his team conducts the same exit polls at early voting centers and uses "multimode surveys" of mail-in voters to accurately reflect this segment of the electorate.

These data are then fed into a model that helps decide if race can be called when real results begin to rolling in.

The Associated Press referred DW to its corporate blog on how their program declares races. According to AP vice president David Scott, AP VoteCast considers live vote counting as well as voter registration, early voting, previous results, election and results release rules to determine the likely election winner.

AP VoteCast also says its surveys collect standardized demographic data and vote choices up until polls close.

What to expect on election night

If polls are anything to go by, some states may not be declared by certain outlets on election night or possibly for several days.

With so many tight races, could a media company break from its pool and declare a race early?

It would be highly unusual, but outlets do have editorial independence to make their own decisions. 

More likely is a situation similar to the 2020 election night. 

While the NEP and AP VoteCheck share race-calling principles, the difference between the two programs and their partners was highlighted when Fox News, an AP VoteCheck client, declared Joe Biden had won the state of Arizona, to the chagrin of Donald Trump. The AP followed soon after.

It was a tight race, though, and NEP clients did not follow suit until November 12 — a full nine days after the polls closed.

"Our computer models are programmed to advise a call only when they're 99.5% confident that we can project a winner," said Lenski.

Given the current atmosphere, he added, computer models were taken under advisement, but the decision was left to a team of human analysts who push for that extra 0.5% confidence before stating their projection — that is, before calling the race.

With that in mind, and if current polls are to be believed, voters can  expect some swing states to be up-in-the-air well after November 5.

Edited by: Maren Sass