NATO's eastern members brace for US disengagement

Donald Trump has once again questioned the value of NATO. Russia's neighbors in the Baltic region are watching his statements with concern.

Over the past six weeks of the United States and Israel's war against Iran, several NATO members have stood apart. While some US allies cautiously withheld support for military action and others outright barred the use of their military infrastructure, the Baltic states took a different approach.

All three countries described operation Epic Fury as understandable given Iran's nuclear program, threats to neighboring countries and its support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine, as Latvia's president Edgars Rinkevics put it.

Baltic leaders also welcomed the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader in late February, pointing to what they see as a new opportunity for the Iranian people to determine their own future.

Estonia has signaled readiness to consider deploying its demining vessels to the Strait of Hormuz. Lithuania has gone further, expressing willingness to consider providing troops to assist Washington should such a request be made.

The rationale behind this support was best articulated by Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda.

"We cannot say with one hand that the presence of US troops on the territory of Lithuania is a matter of course and we simply accept it as a given, but when we are asked to contribute to international missions, we say that this is none of our business," he told Lithuanian media.

For the Baltic states, supporting the US, their most powerful ally, is seen as crucial for their own security, particularly in relation to the threat posed byRussia .

Just this week, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned the three countries of "serious consequences" over alleged use of their airspace by drones attacking Russia – accusations all three states firmly deny.

Avoiding irritating Donald Trump

Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the Baltic states have once again positioned themselves as "model allies." Alongside Poland and the Gulf states, they were described as such by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

Like Poland, the Baltic states were also among the first NATO members to respond to the US president's call to increase defense spending, and they are now among the leaders in the alliance. In 2025, Poland allocated 4.5% of GDP to defense, Lithuania 4%, Latvia 3.7%, and Estonia 3.4%. By comparison, the United States spent 3.2% of GDP.

Researcher Sergejs Potapkins of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs described this policy as an "established signature style," aimed at "trying not to irritate Donald Trump and, in general, not to enter his field of attention, so that the approach toward the Baltic states that has existed since 2022 continues for as long as possible."

The current approach, deterrence by denial, assumes that an adversary will not dare attack NATO countries if it is convinced it cannot achieve its objectives. As former US President Joe Biden and European leaders repeatedly stated, NATO is ready to defend every inch of its territory.

This strategy replaced deterrence by retaliation. According to Potapkins, that earlier approach did not suit the Baltic states, as it implied the possibility of partial occupation of their territory.

Planning for a contingency

In reality, Trump's skeptical remarks about defending NATO allies were met with little surpise in the Baltic states. A 2025 poll in Latvia, for example, showed that only 43% of respondents believe – or tend to believe – that NATO would be willing to fight for the country if it were attacked, while 41% think this is unlikely.

This awareness of their own responsibility for defense has driven the development of national guards in the Baltic states – volunteer defense forces tasked with making occupation of the region impossible in the event of a Russian attack.

Sigita Struberga, secretary general at the Latvian Transatlantic Organisation, said that Latvians are increasingly coming to understand that there is no separate NATO army, but rather that "NATO is us."

"Taking into consideration the number of those who are serving compulsory military service, and professional army, still the number is not sufficient. We need National Guards", Struberga told DW.

Reinforcing NATO's presence

As part of preparations for reduced US involvement in NATO, Potapkins points to the deployment of allied military contingents from other countries. Such forces are stationed in each of the Baltic states.

In Lithuania, this includes the German 45th Armored Brigade. It currently numbers around 1,800 troops, and there are plans to increase the deployment to 4,800 military personnel and 200 civilian staff by 2027.

A Canadian-led multinational brigade in Latvia comprises around 2,000 personnel. In Estonia, about 1,500 troops are stationed as part of a multinational battlegroup led by the United Kingdom.

"Increasing the contingent is now the top priority for both diplomats and the military in talks with partners. This is one of those cases where more is better," said Potapkins.

In addition, she argues that the Baltic states should move quickly to prepare their military infrastructure — anti-tank "dragon’s teeth" and counter-drone systems — in case the United States revises its role in NATO. If that happens, other NATO allies  are likely to focus on their own security, leaving the Baltic states with little room to pursue such projects.