Trump’s risky gamble: Can the US 'run' Venezuela after Maduro's capture?

US President Donald Trump described the next steps following the shock military US action in Venezuela – dubbed “Operation Absolute Determination” – as a temporary phase pending a political transition. 

He presented the run-up to this transition as simple and unequivocal: the United States would “run” Venezuela after the capture of Nicolas Maduro on Saturday.

Read moreVenezuela's Maduro arrives at US court to face narcotrafficking charges

But the US president did not provide details on how this US stewardship – which would be legally fragile – would be implemented. And while he left open the possibility of deploying US troops on Venezuelan soil, he did not specify whether their role would be to maintain order or protect the US oil companies that he said would soon be operating in the country.

"Toppling Maduro is likely to be the easy part for Trump," warned an analysis in The Washington Post. The paper nevertheless offered editorial support for the US operation.

Historically, US attempts to "run" foreign countries, either covertly or openly from Washington, have rarely succeeded. "In Latin America, US interventions have generally ended badly, such as Guatemala in 1954, where a US-backed coup led to decades of internal conflict," said Luca Trenta, a US foreign policy and security specialist at Swansea University in Wales. "Elsewhere, in Iraq and Libya, the American presence was also accompanied by a sharp rise in violence."

Many experts expressed scepticism that Trump might succeed where others had failed. "The statements made during the press conference [on Sunday] were not reassuring," said Rebecca Jarman, a Latin America security specialist at the University of Leeds. "The best-case scenario would have been a negotiated transition, perhaps some kind of diplomatic help in creating a structure that would lead to some sort of coalition. Instead, everything appears to rest on a show of force and the possible deployment of troops."

Is Delcy Rodriguez the key? 

Trump has ruled out Venezuelan Maria Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, saying she lacked the stature to lead the country, despite her role as a former lawmaker and Venezuela’s leading opposition figure.

Anyone who ascends to the role will be walking a fine line.  "The problem is that the manner in which Maduro was removed will make the next opposition leader look like a US puppet," said Tom Long, a Latin America specialist at the University of Warwick.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio appears to have made his choice. He announced that the United States would cooperate with Delcy Rodriguez, Venezuela’s vice president, who was appointed by the Supreme Court on Saturday to serve as interim president.

Read moreMaduro's 'tiger' with designer fashion tastes: Who is Venezuela's VP Delcy Rodriguez?

But shortly after Rubio made his remarks, Rodriguez showed little willingness to align with Washington. "She was very clear in a press conference that actually, she simply wanted to get Maduro back because he was the legitimate president", Trenta said. Speaking on state television, Rodriguez urged national unity in response to what she called Maduro's "kidnapping" and insisted Venezuela would never become a "colony".

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Rodriguez also arouses "a degree of mistrust within the US administration because some see her as appointed by Maduro and so unreliable", the expert added. She thus does not fit the profile of the total political reversal the United States would like to see in Venezuela.

"It would be wrong to assume the previous government disappeared with Maduro’s arrest," Long said.

But some experts argued she could play a stabilising role. "Her hostile rhetoric towards Washington is posturing, it’s unavoidable," Jarman said. Any other tone would have branded her a Washington stooge in the eyes of officials still in place in Caracas. 

Jarman described Rodriguez as "not particularly ideologically bound" and, above all, "a careerist politician". She added that Rodriguez’s track record of running the Venezuelan intelligence services since 2018 means she is experienced in dealing with "antagonistic actors", an advantage in the eyes of Trump and Rubio. 

Indeed, that skill could allow Rodriguez to maintain a fragile balance between US interests as well as those of the Venezuelan military and "non-state actors", including gangs, potentially sparing Washington the need to deploy troops.

Silence within Venezuela’s army

It remains to be seen, however, if Rodriguez’s political skill will be enough to keep Venezuela under control. No one knows, for instance, how the country's powerful military could react. "At the moment, Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez and high-ranking officials are laying low," Jarman said. "They want to see what happens and how this all plays out before working out where best to invest their loyalty and their efforts."

"The army's appetite to defend Maduro himself is very limited, but its appetite to defend its turf is very high – especially its interests in natural resource extraction such as oil, or in drug trafficking," she added.

The armed forces, therefore, appear to be waiting to see which entrenched interests they will be able to defend.

Experts also warned of the risk of internal divisions within the armed forces. "If splits emerge, tensions could quickly escalate, potentially leading to violence, chaos and conflict," Trenta said. 

Such a scenario would be catastrophic for the population, who would bear the brunt of any escalation in violence. But the alternative is not a cure-all for Venezuelans, even if some welcomed the fall of Maduro, who Jarman notes "was very unpopular” in the country.

A short-term cooperation between Washington and Rodriguez could entrench the existing power structure, Jarman warned. “The ruling elites could tighten their grip on institutions and increase repression, this time without fear of being targeted by the United States,” she said. 

This article was translated from the original in French by Anaëlle Jonah.