French far right eyes Marseille upset after strong showing in mayoral elections

The French far right’s steady ascent cleared another milestone on Sunday as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally posted its best-ever results in the first round of municipal elections seen as a test of its presidential ambitions.

Incumbent Louis Aliot was comfortably re-elected in Perpignan, the only city with a population above 100,000 the party already ran. National Rally candidates also led the first round in Toulon and were neck-and-neck with the left in Nîmes and Marseille, France's second-largest city.

The party's president Jordan Bardella said voters expressed "a deep desire for change" and appealed for more backing in the second round on March 22. 

"In 7 days, your vote can change the face of many French towns," he said. "Change isn't waiting for 2027. It starts next Sunday."

Read moreTurnout low in French mayoral elections seen as key test ahead of 2027 presidential race

More than 904,000 candidates were vying for elected posts in roughly 35,000 municipalities across the country, from major cities to villages with only a few dozen inhabitants.

The run-up to the vote was largely overshadowed by the fallout from the Iran war, notably its impact on fuel prices. Voter turnout was less than 59%, up from Covid-affected mayoral elections in 2020, but down from the 63.5% registered in 2014.

Though mayoral elections are often fought on local issues, they also gauge the public mood, measure parties’ strength and generate momentum – particularly with a presidential contest just around the corner, which polls suggest Le Pen’s party could win.

The eurosceptic, anti-immigrant party has traditionally underperformed in municipal polls. Breakthrough wins in next Sunday’s runoffs would further bolster its credibility ahead of the 2027 presidential bout.

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A 10% threshold to qualify for the March 22 runoffs means three-, four-, or even five-way races are possible in the second round, making their outcome hard to predict.

With France’s fractious left increasingly divided, and the “sanitary cordon” that once barred mainstream conservatives from allying with the far right showing signs of erosion, the focus will now shift to frantic horse-trading as parties work to make alliances in some constituencies or pull out of others.

'Earthquake'

Surveys have long shown mayors to be France’s most popular elected officials, leaving less scope for the type of protest vote that was once the far right’s main driver.

But Le Pen’s National Rally has grown into more than a magnet for the nation’s discontented, becoming the largest single party in the French National Assembly following a snap election in 2024.

Opinion polls in the run-up to the vote showed security was voters’ main priority, in line with the party’s law-and-order focus. That focus has lured many voters in violence-plagued Marseille, France’s second-largest city, where RN candidate Franck Allisio was tied with the Socialist mayor, Benoît Payan.

Payan warned earlier this month that the cosmopolitan city falling into the hands of the far right would be "an earthquake for the country".

In further evidence of conservative voters drifting to the far right, Éric Ciotti, the former leader of the centre-right Les Républicains who is now a Le Pen ally, took a commanding lead in the Riviera city of Nice, 10 points clear of longtime mayor Christian Estrosi from Macron’s centre-right alliance.

The surge in support for Le Pen’s party comes as the veteran far-right leader could be barred from challenging again for the presidency herself. Last year, a French court convicted her of embezzlement and prohibited her from seeking public office for five years.

Le Pen is hoping that an appeals court clears her in a key verdict set for July 7 – barring which her lieutenant Bardella is expected to step in as the party's candidate for the Élysée Palace.

Resilience

Even as the National Rally celebrated on Sunday, mainstream parties showed some signs of resilience, particularly in the big cities, while the radical left hailed an unexpected breakthrough of its own.

Socialist candidate Emmanuel Grégoire came first in the marquee race for Paris, with a significant lead over conservative Rachida Dati, while the far right's rising star Sarah Knafo appeared to have underperformed.

Read moreLeft-wing candidate Emmanuel Grégoire tops first round of Paris mayoral race

A high-profile contender for the presidency, former prime minister Édouard Philippe fared better than expected in his bastion of Le Havre, building a 10-point lead over his Communist rival.

Seen as one of the strongest candidates to take on the far right next year, Philippe had put his presidential ambitions on the line, suggesting he might drop out of the race if he failed to win re-election in the port city.

Going into the second round, the key question for the National Rally is whether other parties will once again unite to keep it out of power – or whether it can peel away enough candidates and voters from the mainstream right.

Bardella reached out to "sincere right-wingers" and "independents" as he urged them to join his party in bringing about "change".

At the other end of the spectrum, hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon called for the establishment of a "anti-fascist front" to keep the far right at bay.

Socialist leader Olivier Faure, whose party has ruled out renewing its formal alliance with Mélenchon's France Unbowed, urged voters not to hand momentum to the National Rally in the run-up to next year's presidential race.

"The march of the far right to the Élysée Palace is not inevitable," he said. "As soon as next Sunday, we can – we must – create new hope for 2027."