‘New reality for the region’: What roles will China and India play in the Middle East after the Iran war?
The influence of rising powers in the Middle East is unlikely to take the form of the military presence traditionally associated with the United States, say analysts at the Middle East Institute’s annual conference.
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SHENZHEN: Neither China nor India is likely to replace the United States’ longstanding role in the Middle East even as the Iran war reshapes regional dynamics, analysts said on Tuesday (Jun 23).
Instead, the Middle East is set for a more complex balance of power, they added.
While rising powers are expected to remain important players, the experts said their influence is likely to take different forms, including through diplomacy and economic partnerships, rather than the military presence traditionally associated with Washington.
“Any expectation of new external actors playing similar roles to what … American or European powers have played in the past should not be expected,” said Kabir Taneja, executive director of Observer Research Foundation (ORF) Middle East, a Dubai-based policy think tank.
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He was speaking during a panel discussion at the Middle East Institute’s (MEI) annual conference. MEI is an autonomous research institute within the National University of Singapore.
This year’s conference was themed “After the Iran War: The Global Geopolitical and Economic Fallout”.
In the panel titled “External Powers and the New Middle East Reality”, experts examined what the conflict means for the influence of major powers, including the US, China and India.
TESTING CHINESE ENGAGEMENT
Speaking during the panel, Jonathan Fulton, an associate professor at Zayed University, said the conflict has tested China’s engagement with the region.
“China's had an economics-focused approach to the region that works during periods of stability. It doesn't necessarily work during periods of turbulence,” said Fulton, whose research focuses on China’s relations with the Middle East.
China has expanded its presence in the Middle East in recent years through energy, trade, investment and diplomacy, including brokering the restoration of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023.
The region has become increasingly important to Beijing, with the Middle East supplying about half of China’s crude oil imports over the past decade, according to the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy, citing its analysis of Chinese customs data.
Fulton said China’s presence in the Middle East grew as Beijing recognised instability in the region could affect its economic and energy interests.
Chinese engagement became more systematic after the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013 - Beijing’s global infrastructure and investment strategy - but remains largely focused on economic and development cooperation, he added.
Responding to a question on whether the conflict exposed the limits of China’s role as a security actor, another panellist, China foreign policy expert Yun Sun, said the issue was not whether Beijing would play a role, but what form that role would take.
The Iran war broke out on Feb 28 after the US and Israel launched strikes on Tehran, triggering retaliation and regional escalation. The months-long conflict has killed thousands, mostly Iranians, and rattled global markets.
China has repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire and a return to diplomacy while criticising military actions that risk widening the conflict.
“China will not conduct military intervention … (and) does not plan to have military deployment in the region,” said Yun, who is a senior fellow and director of the China Programme at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.
“But it doesn’t mean that China does not seek to play a role.”
The US has long been a key security partner for many Middle Eastern countries, but governments in the region have increasingly sought to broaden their partnerships with other powers, including China and India.
Yun pointed to examples such as China’s mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but added that facilitating agreements is different from guaranteeing them.
“That is a categorically different role … because guarantor means that you have to carry the responsibility for the implementation of the agreement,” she said.
Still, Yun said Beijing has shown signs that it wants to play a bigger role in Middle East security affairs, pointing to its support for Pakistan’s mediation efforts between the US and Iran, and a series of diplomatic engagements with the region.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held multiple high-level talks with Middle Eastern counterparts since early March, including on regional security issues.
“It has been a deliberate design pointing to a more significant Chinese involvement in the Middle East security, (so) that is also going to be a new reality for the region,” she said.
INDIA’S GROWING INTEREST
As for India, Taneja from ORF Middle East said the South Asian country has sought to maintain strategic autonomy in the Middle East by engaging different sides, such as the Gulf states, Israel and Iran.
The region is India’s key economic partner, supplying much of its energy needs and hosting millions of Indian nationals, particularly in Gulf countries.
“(India) does not look at the Middle East as one entity or a singular entity, it has relationships largely led by bilateral outreach to almost all countries in the region,” he said, adding that New Delhi’s approach is shaped by interests ranging from energy security and economic ties to regional strategy.
He pointed to India’s relationship with the United Arab Emirates as an example of New Delhi’s growing engagement in the region, saying economic ties between both sides have gained momentum in recent years.
“There is actual buy-in …there is momentum from an economic and business point of view,” he said.
But Taneja said these growing partnerships should not be seen as a sign that India is looking to take on the kind of security role traditionally played by Western powers.
“Can it be a security provider? Look at our geography,” he said, highlighting India’s security concerns involving neighbours Pakistan and China.
Still, Taneja said India has continued engaging different sides in the region, reflecting how countries are navigating a more complex Middle East where relationships do not fall neatly into rival blocs.
“All of these exist in their own equilibriums,” he said.
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