Commentary: Pakistan mediating US-Iran war should not come as a surprise
Pakistan’s diplomatic win shows the value of middle powers that operate across different spheres of influence, says Derek Grossman of the University of Southern California.
by Derek Grossman · CNA · JoinRead a summary of this article on FAST.
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LOS ANGELES: As America and Israel’s war on Iran comes to a temporary halt, Pakistan has emerged as a critical conduit for peace talks.
On Wednesday (Apr 8), US President Donald Trump agreed to stop bombing Iran for two weeks, in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Instead of negotiating directly with Tehran, Washington appeared to rely on Islamabad as a key intermediary passing messages between the two sides.
It may seem surprising that Pakistan is playing peacemaker, given that the country is currently embroiled in a conflict with Afghanistan. But for those who have tracked Pakistan over time, its mediation role in the Iran war is predictable.
A VALUABLE CONVENOR
Islamabad’s diplomacy has long been remarkably versatile. Pakistan had strong relations with the US during the Cold War because of its anti-Communist stance, and Chinese backing since the Indo-Pakistan wars of 1965 and 1971.
The United States leveraged Pakistan’s access to China at a time when Washington lacked direct engagement with Beijing. At America’s behest, Pakistan facilitated secret diplomacy involving Henry Kissinger, culminating in Richard Nixon’s historic 1972 visit to meet Mao Zedong – a geostrategic breakthrough that reshaped the Cold War balance.
Since Mr Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, Pakistan has made a concerted effort to re-engage the United States. This reflects a desire to repair ties strained after US forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, in part because of covert Pakistani support to the Taliban. But Islamabad is also seeking to hedge against deepening US-India cooperation, which has intensified over the past quarter-century in response to China’s rise.
To that end, Pakistan has invested heavily in lobbying and diplomatic outreach in the US. These efforts appear to have paid dividends, securing high-level engagement with the Trump administration on issues ranging from critical minerals to emerging technologies. Islamabad was also quick to praise Mr Trump’s role in de-escalating last year’s brief India-Pakistan crisis – an assessment New Delhi disputes.
Mr Trump later hosted Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir at the White House for a private meeting. Though there was no official readout, discussions likely included sensitive regional issues, potentially including Iran.
Pakistan has coordinated with China on potential diplomatic pathways for the Iran war. Beijing has a strong interest in de-escalation, as it remains the primary buyer of Iranian oil exports, much of which transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Chinese leaders appear to view Pakistan as a useful intermediary that can leverage its ties with Washington to help facilitate dialogue.
PAKISTAN’S TIES WITH THE MIDDLE EAST
In recent years, Pakistan has sought to balance relationships in the Middle East. In 2025, it signed a mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, signalling a willingness to support the kingdom’s security in the event of external threats.
While not a formal treaty, the deal is significant given Pakistan’s status as the only Muslim-majority country with nuclear weapons – raising persistent speculation about whether it could, in extremis, extend deterrence assurances to close partners.
At the same time, Pakistan’s relations with Iran have largely held. Although the two sides exchanged limited strikes along their shared border in 2024, both governments have generally sought to manage tensions diplomatically. Frictions persist, particularly over cross-border Baloch militant and separatist groups operating on both sides of the frontier, but neither side has an interest in sustained escalation.
Although Islamabad’s relations with Israel remain poor, it also has close relations with other Middle Eastern states – including Egypt, Oman, Qatar, and Türkiye – that have also sought to mediate the Iran war. But it was Pakistan, not any of them, who Mr Trump credited on Wednesday, capping off one of the greatest diplomatic coups in recent memory.
To be sure, Washington and Tehran have agreed to merely pause hostilities for the next two weeks, and the space for diplomacy to achieve a broader deal remains exceedingly narrow. But Pakistan and China’s peace initiative offers a serious roadmap towards a negotiated settlement of the dispute, and finally a return to the status quo ante. A more lasting deal may be appealing when both sides take into account the costs of a prolonged, expanded war.
DIPLOMACY AMID SHIFTING ALLIANCES
Pakistan’s role as an intermediary is not an anomaly – it is a preview. In an era defined less by rigid alliances and more by overlapping networks of influence, countries like Pakistan – comfortable operating across Western, Chinese, and Muslim political spheres – are increasingly indispensable.
Islamabad’s diplomatic win underscores a broader shift in global politics: Influence is no longer measured solely by military power or formal alliances, but by access, relationships and credibility across divides.
If anything, Pakistan’s mediation role is not a one-off – it is a sign of the future of crisis diplomacy. In a might-makes-right world order, middle powers need to do what they can to stay relevant, such as seizing opportunities to bridge adversaries.
Derek Grossman is Founder and Chief Analyst of Indo-Pacific Solutions, a geopolitical consultancy on the region. He is also Professor of the Practice of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Southern California.
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