Commentary: No end in sight to Russia’s war in Ukraine on its fourth anniversary
The full conquest of the Donbas remains the minimum President Vladimir Putin needs to spin a narrative of victory, but even that is eluding him, says former ceasefire observer Samir Puri.
by Samir Puri · CNA · JoinRead a summary of this article on FAST.
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SINGAPORE: On the day Russia’s armed forces launched their full-scale invasion of Ukraine, one would have thought it improbable that four years later, Ukraine’s far smaller military would still be standing in defiance.
After all, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stated aim for the invasion in 2022 was to fully conquer the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. What he really wanted was regime change and the de facto abrogation of Ukraine sovereignty, but it became clear in the first year of the war that this grander aim could not be achieved, notably after Russia failed to occupy Kyiv.
As the battlefield picture currently stands, even the narrower aim of “settling” for the Donbas eludes him. And yet, the full conquest of the Donbas remains the very minimum Mr Putin needs to let him declare “mission accomplished” and spin a narrative of victory.
While Luhansk (one half of the Donbas) is fully controlled by Russia, the other half, Donetsk, remains the scene of bitter fighting. Ukraine’s armed forces continue to use, among other weapons, armed drones to ensure the occupation of every village in Donetsk comes at a considerable cost in Russian lives.
Ukraine has suffered enormous loss of life and livelihood in the invasion too. But it has maintained its sovereignty, retained control of its capital city throughout and kept the majority of its land. Russia presently occupies around 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory and around 80 per cent of Ukraine’s coastline, including the Crimean Peninsula annexed in March 2014 at the start of its earlier, more limited invasion of Ukraine.
This is thanks to the self-sacrifice and innovative spirit of Ukrainians and its armed forces and enormous amounts of assistance from its allies. Meanwhile, its Western backers are also planning ahead for the Ukraine that emerges from this war - and the enormous amounts of outside assistance needed to support its embattled military, reassure its traumatised population and allow the post-war state to remain financially viable.
However, there are still no indications the war will end soon.
PROGRESS IN PEACE TALKS BUT NO END IN SIGHT
United States-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva last week have drawn a blank. US officials were optimistic that progress could be made, and they are keen to deliver a big win for President Donald Trump.
The US has helped bring the warring sides together. Until January, when the first round of trilateral talks was held in Abu Dhabi, the countries had never met in this format for officially sanctioned peace talks.
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff told the World Economic Forum in January that “a lot of progress” had been made in peace talks and negotiations were down to one last issue. Though he didn’t specify what the main sticking point was, the bitterly disputed fate of the Donbas region is widely understood to be the main gap.
This is not the only factor holding back the talks from progress.
Last week’s Geneva talks offered another throwback to the early weeks of the full-scale invasion: the return of a certain negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, heading the Russian delegation. Although his name is not often discussed, it is a salient factor in the lack of progress on the talks.
Mr Medinsky served as Russia’s culture minister between 2012 and 2020, and was appointed by Mr Putin at the start of the war to lead a team of Russian negotiators to meet Ukrainian officials in Belarus in 2022, presumably with the intention of imposing a victor’s peace on Ukraine. Mr Medinsky is also an amateur historian, sharing Mr Putin’s well-known thoughts on Russia reasserting its authority over parts of its former empire that have achieved independence.
Perhaps this is why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy complained on X that being lectured on history by Russian officials is “just a delay tactic. I read no less history books than Putin”. Mr Zelenskyy concluded: “The only thing that I want to speak about with him is that … we need to resolve it in the most successful way. I mean to end this war quickly.”
US INCONSISTENCY OVER TERMS FOR ENDING THE WAR
This aim is clearly shared by the US government and Mr Trump, but they have been less consistent about how to end the war.
At times, Mr Trump seemed frustrated with Mr Putin, saying he was angry at the lack of progress and at one point, even threatening sanctions on Russian oil and secondary tariffs on purchasing countries. Other times, the US has favoured Russia’s preferences for ending the war, when Mr Trump published his 28-point plan to end the war in November 2025. That plan, issued with Russia’s approval, called for Ukraine to withdraw from parts of the Donbas it was still defending.
Since then, Ukraine and its staunchest European backers, the UK, France and Germany, have asked the US to offer Ukraine robust post-war security guarantees. This Ukrainian request has not received US agreement.
But four years on, no one should be mistaken: The real criticism must be levelled at Russia, and Mr Putin’s dogged desire to subjugate Ukraine. Even now in the dead of winter, Russia has conducted regular long-range missile strikes on its cities and energy infrastructure, plunging parts of Ukraine into darkness and cold.
For now, there are no prospects of breakthroughs on the battlefield or at the negotiation table. And there is every chance that US attention now slips from Eastern Europe to the Middle East, given the looming crisis over Iran.
Mr Trump may now seek a resolution over Iran before his attention returns to Ukraine. If by then Russian forces advance in the Donbas, a window of opportunity may open for Mr Putin to end Russia’s invasion without losing face, if he can finally declare success.
But equally, he may decide not to end his war and feel emboldened to continue. Either way, the fighting is set to continue.
Dr Samir Puri is Visiting Lecturer in War Studies at King’s College London and a former ceasefire observer in Ukraine. His books include Westlessness and Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine.
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