Snap Insight: US-Iran ceasefire – Trump blinked first but Tehran must be careful not to gloat
There is no indication that the gap between US and Iranian demands to end the war has narrowed, says James M Dorsey of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
by James M Dorsey · CNA · JoinRead a summary of this article on FAST.
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SINGAPORE: Any halt to the Iran war was always a question of who blinks first.
A careful reading of Donald Trump's and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's social media posts suggests that the United States president did, even if both sides declared victory after reaching a two-week ceasefire on Wednesday (Apr 8).
Consider Mr Trump's acknowledgement that Iran's 10-point plan to end the war was "a workable basis on which to negotiate".
According to Iranian state media, the proposal includes points that the US had rejected before, such as continued control over the Strait of Hormuz and acceptance of its uranium enrichment programme. It is still not clear if this is the same 10-point plan that Mr Trump rejected as “not good enough” on Monday.
The ceasefire announcement followed the president’s apocalyptic assertion that Iranian "civilisation will die … never to be brought back again", and his threats of US air strikes against Iranian infrastructure, including bridges, power plants and railroads.
Even so, there is no indication that the gap between US and Iranian demands has narrowed. This will require significant compromise by both parties.
IRAN MUST BE CAREFUL NOT TO GLOAT
Iran will bank on the fact that a return to hostilities will be far more difficult for Mr Trump in a mid-term election year. Various polls indicate that a majority of Americans oppose the war, especially with prices rising at the gas pump and in supermarkets.
Nevertheless, Iran will have to be careful not to overplay its hand in negotiations that it hopes will not only permanently end the war but also lift all US sanctions and provide compensation for war damages.
One way Iran could overplay its hand is to gloat, amid media reports suggesting it outsmarted Mr Trump.
“Trump hates being portrayed as losing … That could persuade him to toughen his negotiating stance and back away from the ceasefire or even strike at Iran in violation of the ceasefire,” a Trump administration official told me shortly after the ceasefire was announced.
WHAT AN OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL LOOK LIKE
Negotiations for a permanent end to the war are scheduled to be held in Islamabad on Friday under Pakistani auspices. Iran enters them with increased leverage: What an open strait means during the ceasefire will likely shape future permanent arrangements.
It’s unclear whether Iran will levy transit fees during the ceasefire, but the ceasefire plan reportedly includes allowing Iran and Oman to charge for passage.
Shipping companies may find it less problematic to price a fixed, predictable fee – even if industry chatter suggests Iran could charge between US$1 million and US$2 million – compared to volatile insurance premiums.
Reports in March indicated that insurance could cost as much as US$5 million to US$10 million to cover an oil supertanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The opening of the strait is expected to substantially lower the insurance cost.
Iran’s opening of the strait will be put to the test when in the next two weeks the first US or Israel-related vessels attempt to transit the waterway.
UNDERMINING THE PAUSE
The first 24 hours of the ceasefire are likely to be the most fraught.
News of the ceasefire will reach the lower echelons of Iranian military and Revolutionary Guards with a delay because of Iran’s decentralised command structure and the fact that commanders have limited communications to evade US and Israeli targeting.
As a result, Israel and Gulf states have intercepted some lingering Iranian missile and drone attacks since the announcement. Israel has attacked the sites from which Iran fired its latest missiles, despite the ceasefire.
In addition, Israel is likely to seek to undermine the pause. Already, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that the Iran ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon which Israel has continued to strike.
That is one issue that will determine whether the ceasefire will hold and whether the conflict in Lebanon has become a war of its own.
Dr James M Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Associate Editor of WhoWhatWhy, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M Dorsey.
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