US, China in ‘mutually assured disruption’ dynamic, both sides worse off if they continue imposing restrictions on one another: PM Wong
Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said that Singapore seeks to have friendly ties with as many countries as possible, including Europeans, Gulf countries and North Korea, among others.
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SINGAPORE: While the United States and Soviet Union were caught in a state of “mutually assured destruction” during the Cold War, the US and China could now be in a dynamic of “mutually assured disruption”, said Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Monday (Jun 8).
In such a relationship, “any attempt by one side to impose restrictions on another will trigger a response from the other side, and in the end both parties will be worse off,” said Mr Wong.
Given this new dynamic, he said he hopes it provides a stabilising factor between both sides and an incentive for them to manage their differences well.
Mr Wong was speaking during a dialogue session as part of the Singapore Press Club’s Eminent Speaker Series, held at the SPH Media News Centre’s auditorium in Toa Payoh.
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While it was good that the leaders of US and China, presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, met recently in a summit that went well, “it doesn’t mean that all the problems are resolved”, said Mr Wong.
“In fact, there continue to be significant differences between the two countries. But increasingly, both sides, I feel, will have to recognise that they have to coexist with one another. The two economies are just too deeply intertwined,” he said.
“It reminds me of what happened during the Cold War, when people talked about MAD – mutually assured destruction. Perhaps now there is a similar dynamic happening, a different type of MAD – mutually assured disruption.”
Mr Wong said there will be intense competition between the two, but he hopes this will not escalate into outright confrontation or conflict.
“It is in the interest of both America and China to maintain this strategic framework and to have that stability in their relations,” he said.
To this, he then said Southeast Asian nations want to keep both major powers engaged in the region, while also maintaining and growing relations with other players such as the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
“From Asia's point of view, we also don't want to see a world that's divided into competing spheres of influence, where there is one sphere dominated by a single power here in Asia, another sphere in the Western hemisphere, and then another sphere in Europe, and so on,” said Mr Wong.
“I think that arrangement and configuration will be unstable. It will lead only to more competition and rivalry, and eventually may even lead to conflict. That's not our preferred arrangement.”
FORGING LINKS WITH MANY PARTNERS
While the world is now multipolar, “not all the poles are the same”, noted Mr Wong.
The US remains a dominant power in this multipolar configuration “for the foreseeable future” and continues to have “significant interest in this part of the world”, he said.
During the dialogue, Mr Wong noted that there are some who think that America is on the decline.
“There are some who think that America is on the decline and is going to withdraw, and that it will just pull back into its own hemisphere. We don't think that's happening,” he said.
Mr Wong noted that people have been predicting the decline of America for a long time, including when he himself was a student. He had obtained his Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor.
“I was a student in America when all they said was, ‘Japan is going to take over the world’. It has not happened, and time and again America has defied the odds, and it continues to be a dynamic and very innovative economy," he said.
Meanwhile, China also remains “a very important player, very key partner to all of our countries in Southeast Asia” through its significant and extensive trade and investment links with nations in the region.
Further afield, there are partners like Europe, India and the GCC, with whom the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would want to have links with, said Mr Wong.
“We want to have an active multi-engagement approach towards bringing all the key parties and having all of them have stakes in Southeast Asia. That's our approach,” he said.
Singapore takes the chairmanship of the 11-member bloc next year.
When asked about Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan’s recent visit to North Korea, Mr Wong said that it was due to an invitation from the country to visit as part of an anniversary milestone between both sides last year.
“Our approach is quite simple: we want to be friends with everyone,” he said. “Doesn't mean that we agree with everything they do. We don't, but that should not stop us from having open lines of engagement and continuing to have friendship and continuing to have engagement with them.”
He added that North Korea also views Singapore with trust, and appreciates the relationship and engagement between both sides.
“That’s one major reason why they agreed to have the summit here in Singapore between America and the DPRK,” he said, referring to the 2018 meeting between US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
“That's our approach in foreign policy: We have a position, we articulate our national interests, but we continue to be friends with as many countries as possible. It's always better to have more friends than fewer, right?” said Mr Wong.
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