Trump's foes abroad question if midterm loss will weaken or embolden him
· Yahoo NewsCapitals from Kyiv to Tehran were closely watching the U.S. midterm elections for clues about the direction of Washington's foreign policy after two erratic years that have put many leaders in conflict with President Donald Trump.
Those eager to see the president put on his back foot woke up Wednesday to find Republican losses even greater than they expected. But with Democrats set to control both houses of Congress, U.S. allies and foes alike are now wondering whether Trump - weakened and stymied at home - will act more erratically on the world stage, where the executive has far more unilateral muscle, as he strives to secure a legacy in his remaining two years in office.
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A Democratic Congress could attempt to rein Trump in on several fronts, from imposing war powers restraints on Iran and further cutting back weapons sales and other aid to Israel, to constraining his tariff policies and resuming direct aid to Ukraine.
Implications for war in the Middle East
Tehran, which was hoping for a blow to Trump, now faces the question of whether the president - after such a resounding rebuke of his war policy at the ballot box - will still feel emboldened to resume strikes, as he has threatened in the run-up to the midterms.
On Wednesday, Iranian officials portrayed the Republican defeat as a public verdict on an unpopular and costly war.
"Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message. If the US govt betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare," Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on X.
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Trump acknowledged Tuesday night that the war in Iran was partially to blame for wide-scale Republican losses in the midterm elections, but insisted the results were not a disavowal of his presidency.
The midterm results sent ripples of concern through Israel, which had closely followed a U.S. election that was often dominated by bitter debates over the war, its effect on the U.S. economy, the role of pro-Israel campaign donors and allegations of antisemitism.
Democratic candidates like Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico, who won their Senate races in Michigan and Texas, respectively, have pledged to withhold weapons sales to Israel. They have also slammed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a devastating Gaza campaign that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.
The victories of so many Democrats who were critical of Netanyahu and Israel could spark "a sense of urgency" among Israeli opposition leaders to drop their differences and form a government to oust the current prime minister, said Yaakov Katz, a fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, a think tank in Jerusalem.
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Just last week, Israelis held their own elections and denied Netanyahu a straightforward return to power, but neither did they hand challenger Gadi Eisenkot an easy path to form a majority government.
"This will have to have an impact on what's happening with coalition building because you can't ignore the huge shift in the U.S.," Katz said. "It's now in your face: the current government, if it continues, will only cause more problems and challenges for Israel. It's just too toxic."
On Wednesday, several leaders from Eisenkot's bloc pointed to the midterm results and blamed Netanyahu for cratering Israel's image in the United States. The centrist Yair Lapid said that the midterm results showed the opposition bloc must not strike a deal to join a government that included Netanyahu - something that Netanyahu has been pushing.
"The American election results in the morning have one unexpected outcome: they eliminate any possibility of a unity government led by Netanyahu," Lapid said on X. "Israel cannot afford to let him remain prime minister. It endangers security, it endangers democracy, it will crush us in the world."
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Yair Golan, a left-leaning opposition leader, said Netanyahu had become "toxic among both Democrats and Republicans."
Netanyahu remaining in power "could lead Israel down a path of international sanctions, international isolation, and a clash with the U.S., our friend and most important ally," he warned.
Europe considers a weakened Trump
The war in Ukraine has been one of the widest partisan divides in U.S. foreign policy, and it will soon be put to the test as U.S.-brokered talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations resume in Abu Dhabi next week, the first such meeting since February.
In Moscow, officials have treated the results as a sign that Trump's position on Ukraine may harden in Moscow's favor, arguing that by betting on a Democratic victory, Kyiv and European capitals have aligned themselves with Trump's chief political enemies at home and should now expect two years of a less constrained president in return.
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"They will not get a more pliable and constrained Trump," Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev said on Telegram. "They will get a more determined one, who no longer has to look over his shoulder at elections. For all the importance of Congress, the US president's role in foreign policy takes priority, and Trump knows that better than everyone else put together."
In Europe, officials urged their governments to stay the course as they seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. as the continent's key security guarantor, warning that a president with less to lose at home could prove even harder to predict abroad.
"Weakened Trump could become more aggressive and unpredictable. A lame duck could quickly turn into an angry duck," Bernd Lange, a member of the European Parliament, said on X. "For EU, this is an opportunity and warning. More democratic influence could bring greater predictability and dialogue. But US protectionism won't disappear. EU cannot live at Trump's mercy!"
Lange's view that Europe cannot afford to depend on Washington's goodwill was echoed across Western Europe, where many called for continued support for Ukraine as a means of ensuring security on the continent.
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"Not because everything now changes for the better, but because it could benefit the support for Ukraine, the green transition, and relations with the rest of the world," European Parliament vice president Christel Schaldemose said on X.
"But the EU must continue the course of standing stronger and standing on its own two feet. That's not up for debate."
The issue has gained urgency as Trump's own backing for Kyiv has faltered, at times leading him to lash out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he has blamed for the global energy disruptions even though the war in Iran has been the main contributor.
Measured reactions in Asia
The midterms are not expected to fundamentally change Washington's approach to China, given the bipartisan consensus on strategic competition with Beijing, and across the region the prevailing expectation is that U.S. protectionist policies will continue regardless of who controls Congress.
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In Beijing, officials stuck to China's traditional neutrality, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning calling the elections a domestic U.S. affair. She said Beijing was willing to work with Washington to "strengthen communication and manage differences."
Some analysts suggested that while the election would do little to the overall approach to China, it could still change how that competition plays out.
"A Democratic-led Congress will certainly further intensify pressure on China on Taiwan, AI and export controls," Zhao Minghao, a professor at Fudan University's Institute of International Studies, told the South China Morning Post, adding that Democrats would likely scrutinize Trump's engagement with Beijing more closely and could use China policy to challenge him politically.
"This is a very big challenge for Beijing," Zhao said, warning that Trump's diminishing political authority could undermine recent progress toward a more stable relationship.
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Natalia Abbakumova, Suzy Haidamous, Mohamad El Chamaa, Rudy Lu and Greg Miller contributed to this report.
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