Is Europe In Iran's Crosshairs? Tehran Hints At Wider Military Reach
by Kian Sharifi · Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty · JoinIran and the United States have traded threats for weeks even as they pursue diplomacy, with the possibility of military escalation after the US midterm elections still looming.
A statement attributed to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on October 31 directed the armed forces to be ready to respond to an attack "immediately, effectively, and with no geographical restriction."
That last point has fueled speculation in Iran about what it could entail and whether Tehran has the capability to deliver on its threat.
When the United States and Israel first attacked Iran on February 28, Tehran responded by striking military and civilian sites in Arab states across the Persian Gulf, insisting it was targeting US interests in the region.
Analysts say the Islamic republic hoped that regionalizing the conflict and striking the territory of US allies would pressure Washington into halting its attacks.
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Some in Tehran now suggest the next phase of the war -- if it reignites as Trump has threatened -- would go further. Conservative lawmaker and former Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki said the next conflict "will not be a regional war."
Speaking on state television after Khamenei's statement was released, Mottaki touted Iran's missile capabilities and warned that if Iran is attacked, the ensuing war "will reach Europe."
Conservative commentator Ali Qolhaki echoed that view, writing on X that the threat to expand Iran's targets beyond the region likely meant Europe -- namely countries such as Great Britain, Italy, Greece, and Germany who host US armed forces and are part of Washington's global military deployment and logistical support network -- was now in Iran's crosshairs.
Iranian media, meanwhile, have framed the statement as a sign that Tehran's policy on the range of its missiles may be shifting.
For years, Iran has maintained a 2,000-kilometer limit on the range of its missiles, a cap that former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said he had imposed despite objections from military figures.
Some outlets now suggest the younger Khamenei, who has not appeared in public since the February 28 strikes that killed his father, is lifting that cap.
The semiofficial ISNA news agency said the statement pointed to a redefinition of how far the armed forces are prepared to strike and could be a sign of change in the strategic considerations governing Iran's missile policy.
The Young Journalists Club, which is affiliated with state broadcaster IRIB, took it another step. It said Iran's target list had been updated and that its deterrence now extended "beyond the region."
The outlet noted that the United States has at least 128 military bases and facilities in 51 countries, from the Middle East to Europe, Africa, and East Asia, and said "the aggressors' bases anywhere in the world" were now on the armed forces' target list.
"Tehran is preparing to respond forcefully to an American-Israeli attack, which, according to assessments, is expected to be particularly broad and violent," according to Dani Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council.
"Moreover, it seems the Iranians are seeking to expand their target bank to include assets that were not attacked in previous campaigns, among them communication infrastructures and additional strategic assets in Gulf countries. The implication is that the next campaign, if it erupts, could be far broader, longer, and more grueling than Washington hopes."
Not everyone is convinced the rhetoric means a change in policy. The reformist daily Etemad cautioned that calling for longer-range missiles, having the technical capability to build them, and formally deciding to change course are three different things.
Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes, offered another reading, saying the reference to geographical restrictions might not be about distance at all. Iran may currently have an agreement with one or more Arab states in the Persian Gulf not to target them, he said, "a restriction that could be lifted."
Binnie said Iran has had the ability to extend the range of its missiles beyond 2,000 km "for some time," since range can be increased by reducing warhead weight.
The most obvious candidate is the Khorramshahr, unveiled in 2017 and, in Binnie's words, "their most powerful missile." It has been estimated to have a range of 3,000 km when fitted with a small, 750-kilogram re-entry vehicle it has been seen carrying, he said in written comments to RFE/RL.
The 2,000-km limit "made some sense," Binnie said, because it allowed the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to strike "pretty much everything it would need to target in the region" without threatening Europe, with the exception of Cyprus and some Greek islands. Reaching Western Europe would require Iran to extend the range of its missiles.
The most obvious target beyond that range, he said, would be Diego Garcia, the joint US-British base in the Indian Ocean nearly 4,000 km from Iranian territory. Britain said Iran attempted but failed to hit the base on March 20, though at least one Iranian official denied such an attempt was made.
Is Europe In Iran's Crosshairs? Tehran Hints At Wider Military Reach
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