Iraqi Militia Drone Attack On Israeli Troops Echoes Tower 22 Incident

Israel revealed Friday that a drone launched from Iraq on Thursday killed two Israeli troops and injured 24, two of them severely, in an army base in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. The attack was the first time a drone launched from Iraq at Israel resulted in any fatalities. It also has many noticeable similarities with another drone attack earlier this year against American troops based in neighboring Jordan.

The Israeli military military investigation into Thursday’s incident revealed that the militias used two explosive drones in the attack. Israeli air defenses successfully downed one. However, the second struck its target undetected minutes later, causing the casualties. The military noted the soldiers did not receive any alert to take cover and is investigating why that was the case.

The Islamic Resistance of Iraq, IRI, claimed responsibility for the attack. The IRI is the umbrella term for Iran-backed Iraqi militias that oppose Israel and the U.S. military presence in Iraq and Syria.

U.S. troops in the Tower 22 facility in northeast Jordan on the Syrian border similarly received no warning when an IRI drone launched from Syria hit their base on January 28. Three U.S. troops perished when the explosive drone hit their living quarters as they slept, with another 47 suffering injuries.

The initial U.S. military assessment of the attack concluded that U.S. forces likely did not detect the militia drone “due to its low flight path.” Furthermore, the facility lacked adequate air defense for combating such threats. Nevertheless, as with the Israeli troops in the Golan on Thursday, those American personnel had no forewarning or any chance to take cover.

Both incidents were the first out of hundreds of IRI attacks against Israel and U.S. troops that caused fatalities. The IRI began firing rockets and drones at U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria shortly after the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip started in October 2023. At least 150 attacks against U.S. troops in these countries preceded the Tower 22 attack, with some causing injuries.

The IRI also launched several drones and cruise missiles against Israel in the months preceding Thursday’s incident, invariably exaggerating the effectiveness of many of these attacks. Overall, in the past year, they have claimed 170 attacks on Israeli targets. Interestingly, an estimated 70 percent of these have occurred this September, coinciding with the beginning of the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon.

The U.S. retaliated for the Tower 22 attack on February 2. In a series of devastating strikes carried out by drones and B-1 Lancer heavy bombers, the U.S. Air Force struck 85 suspected militia targets in seven locations in Syria and Iraq; four in the former and three in the latter. The attacks killed an estimated 40 IRI militiamen.

As of writing, Israel has not directly responded to the IRI drone attack. It’s unclear whether Israel will respond with a rare strike on Iraqi territory since the drones came from there. Israel has repeatedly targeted IRI and a plethora of other Iran-backed militias and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria over the past decade. That campaign markedly intensified since October 2023. It did bomb Iran-backed militias in Iraq back in 2019, but those strikes seem to have been a one-off.

The U.S. may want to dissuade Israel from striking back in Iraq. Unlike its 900-strong troop presence in Syria, the U.S. deployment in Iraq is under agreement and coordination with the central government in Baghdad. Furthermore, the U.S. and Iraq have been negotiating the future status of U.S. troops in the country, over a decade after they returned to the country to help Baghdad fight the notorious Islamic State group. Israeli strikes on Iraqi territory amidst a U.S. drawdown could complicate things for Washington there and politically pressure Baghdad to take a firm stance against the American military presence.

Following Iran’s unprecedented ballistic missile attack against Israel on Tuesday, these Iran-backed Iraqi groups bluntly warned that U.S. bases in Iraq would once again come under fire if the U.S. joins any Israeli retaliation against Iran or if Israel uses Iraqi airspace for attacks against Iran. Israeli fighter jets may have used Iraqi airspace to fire air-launched ballistic missiles into Iran in retaliation to Tehran’s first direct missile and drone attack against Israel in April.

Interestingly, the Middle East Eye outlet published an interesting report on Thursday revealing that pro-Iran political and armed factions in Iraq are wary of incurring any Israeli attack on the country, fearful that it could lead to a government collapse. Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani “has been striving to deprive the Israelis of any pretext that could be used to strike Iraq,” an advisor told the outlet.

“Any ill-considered action in the coming days will have a high price and could burn everything,” the advisor added.

Thursday’s attack could well give Israel a pretext to strike. Whether or not it will do so has yet to be seen as the wider region lurches closer than ever to the calamity of an all-out war.