The Violence In Sinaloa, Mexico Is Getting Worse

Since cartel boss Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada was arrested in El Paso, Texas on July 25, 2024, Sinaloa, the state in Mexico where he lived, has experienced a new wave of violence. El Mayo claimed he was abducted on his way to a meeting with the governor of Sinaloa, adding fuel to allegations about the direct ties Mexico’s top politicians have with cartel leaders. Although the governor of Sinaloa, Ruben Rocha, a close ally of former Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has denied the allegation that he planned to meet with El Mayo before the arrest, he has struggled to disprove the allegations about his friendly relations with Sinaloa’s top organized crime figures. In the weeks since El Mayo’s arrest, Sinaloa has exploded in a new phase of cartel infighting. Over 260 people have been killed in the city of Culiacan in Sinaloa since El Mayo’s detention.

During a recent podcast interview, historian Benjamin Smith, author of the book The Dope: The Real History Of The Mexican Drug Trade said that El Mayo’s arrest has destabilized the dynamics of the criminal underworld in Sinaloa, the state in northwestern Mexico that has long served as the home base for the eponymous Sinaloa Cartel.

“El Mayo has had a very long history of almost five decades in the drug business. He was a major exporter of cocaine, however, over the last decade or so El Mayo’s importance has...been as a key mediator between the Sinaloa Cartel and the federal and state government,” Smith explained.

“He’s more of a political figure now. This is partly why people are worried about what’s going to happen in Sinaloa,” he added.

The chaos in Sinaloa created an alarming coda for President Lopez Obrador’s time in office and has served as new fuel for criticisms about Lopez Obrador’s strategy for dealing with Mexico’s cartels.

When it comes to tackling organized crime, “many people would give [Lopez Obrador] a straight F. His sexenio has witnessed the country’s highest ever homicide figures [and] new industries are being extorted by criminal groups from avocados to chicken farmers,” Smith said.

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Mexico is now recognized as the worst hotspot in the world for extortion and cargo truck hijacking.

“Cartels fragmented into smaller groups [and] many don’t have the capability to do transnational drug smuggling. They’ve turned to extortion, kidnapping, land theft, and auto theft,” Smith said.

The current patchwork of criminal groups in Mexico could pose new challenges for political leaders in Mexico who want to try and reduce violence through negotiating with cartel leaders rather than investigating and arresting criminals.

“Lopez Obrador doesn’t really know how to deal with this [new criminal dynamic]. He knows how to negotiate with people in large cartels like El Mayo. He [was] less good at managing to police smaller gangs that run a lot of Mexico,” Smith said.

The ongoing violence in Sinaloa has created an inauspicious start to the beginning of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s term in office. Sheinbaum has promised to try and improve security by improving inter-agency cooperation and investing in police intelligence.

But, in 2022, for instance nearly 96 percent of all the crimes reported in Sinaloa were never solved. Unfortunately, the trend of impunity in Sinaloa is not an isolated problem. The level of impunity in Sinaloa is similar to the overall rate of impunity across Mexico.

“There is almost complete impunity for people involved in organized crime [and] only about 4 percent of violent crimes are ever prosecuted. If you want one solution you have to overhaul the judicial system,” Smith said.