Dixville Notch Midnight Vote Split 3-3 Between Trump And Harris—But Small Town Is Not Much Of A Bellwether
by Siladitya Ray · ForbesTopline
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, each secured three votes, as the small New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch concluded its long-running tradition of being the first in the country to declare its results—although historically the town’s results have been far from predictive of the statewide vote or national result.
Key Facts
All six voters in the town cast their ballots shortly after midnight—as is tradition—splitting evenly between Harris and Trump.
In the New Hampshire gubernatorial race, Republican candidate Kelly Ayotte secured five votes while her Democratic rival Joyce Craig only managed to win a single vote.
The party registration of the voters is unclear, but the six people who cast their ballot in the primaries earlier this year included four registered Republicans and two independent voters.
Big Number
4.9 points. That is the size of Harris’ polling lead in New Hampshire according FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average of polls from the state.
Key Background
Despite Dixville Notch’s long-held tradition of being the “first in the nation” to declare election results, the town’s record as a bellwether is less than perfect. Earlier this year, all six voters from the town backed Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary, but she ended up losing the state to Trump by 10 points. During the 2020 presidential elections, Biden scored a shut-out 5-0 win over Trump in the town and won the state by more than seven points. In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton beat Trump 4-2 in the town and carried the state by a razor thin margin of 0.4 points. In 2012, 10 votes were cast in the town with former President Barack Obama and the GOP nominee Mitt Romney receiving five votes each—but Obama won the state by a margin of 5.5 points.