Trump’s Taiwan policy faces threat as his Advisers warn of Chinese aggression

Big pressure by hawks to resume arms sale to Taipei ignoring President XI

By Ashok Nilakantan Ayers

NEW YORK: The island that the world refuses to recognise as a country has once again been reminded of a brutal geopolitical truth: in the contest between the United States and China, Taiwan is indispensable — but still expendable.

When President Donald Trump emerged from his carefully choreographed summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week, Taiwan listened nervously. Then came the line that sent tremors through Taipei.

“I’m not looking to have somebody go independent,” Trump said, referring to Taiwan. “I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down.” In one sentence, the American president revived every Taiwanese fear that Washington’s security promises may ultimately stop short of military sacrifice.

Within hours, Taiwan struck back diplomatically. President Lai Ching-te’s office insisted that Taiwan was already “a sovereign, independent democratic country”. Taipei reaffirmed its commitment to the status quo — no declaration of independence, no union with China — but the message underneath was unmistakable: Taiwan will not allow Washington or Beijing to define its identity.

Behind the diplomatic language lies an increasingly dangerous strategic reality. Taiwan now sits at the centre of the most combustible confrontation on earth: a three-way collision involving Chinese nationalism, American military credibility, and Taiwan’s determination to survive as a de facto nation. For many Taiwanese, Trump’s remarks felt less like reassurance and more like betrayal.

For decades, the United States has poured billions into Taiwan’s defence, economy and strategic survival. Washington has armed the island, protected its sea lanes, integrated its semiconductor industry into the Western technological ecosystem and repeatedly warned Beijing against invasion. Yet after all that support, America still refuses formally to recognise Taiwan as an independent state.

The contradiction has always been deliberate. Officially, Washington follows the “One China” policy, recognising Beijing as the sole legal government of China while merely acknowledging — not endorsing — Beijing’s claim over Taiwan. It is one of the great diplomatic ambiguities of modern geopolitics: America protects Taiwan militarily while diplomatically pretending it is not a country.

Taiwanese leaders understand the game. But Trump’s bluntness has exposed the limits of American commitment more starkly than any US president in years. The numbers explain why Taiwan matters so profoundly to Washington.

Economically, Taiwan is no ordinary island. It is the beating heart of the global semiconductor industry. The island produces over 60% of the world’s advanced chips and more than 90% of the most sophisticated semiconductors through companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Without Taiwan, everything from American fighter jets to iPhones to artificial intelligence systems would face catastrophic disruption.

US investment in Taiwan has risen sharply in recent years, especially in high technology, semiconductors and defence-linked sectors. Taiwanese investment into the United States, meanwhile, has exploded. TSMC alone has committed more than $65 billion to chip manufacturing plants in Arizona — one of the largest foreign investments in American industrial history.

Yet these figures remain tiny compared with America’s colossal economic relationship with China. Despite years of tariffs, sanctions and strategic hostility, annual US-China trade still exceeds half a trillion dollars. American companies remain deeply embedded in Chinese manufacturing, consumer markets and supply chains. US investment exposure to China runs into hundreds of billions of dollars through direct investment, equities and corporate operations.

That imbalance haunts Taiwan. Taipei understands that while America may admire Taiwanese democracy, Washington’s economic dependence on China imposes limits on how far any US president is willing to go. Trump’s remarks appeared to confirm precisely that fear.

The military dimension is equally stark. Since 1979, the United States has sold Taiwan more than $70 billion worth of arms, including F-16 fighter jets, Patriot missile systems, Abrams tanks, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, drones and sophisticated radar systems. Under Trump’s first presidency and again since his return to office, arms approvals accelerated sharply as Washington sought to transform Taiwan into what strategists call a “porcupine” — an island so heavily armed that invading it would become prohibitively costly.

Yet weapons alone cannot erase Taiwan’s growing anxiety. Ukraine changed everything. Before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, many Taiwanese believed economic interdependence would deter China from war. That confidence has collapsed. Ukrainians also assumed that massive trade with Europe would restrain Vladimir Putin. Instead, Moscow attacked anyway.

Taiwan now studies Ukraine obsessively. Every drone strike, every trench battle, every delayed Western weapons shipment is analysed in Taipei as a possible preview of its own future. The lesson many Taiwanese draw is chilling: democracies may support you heroically after invasion begins, but they may hesitate before it starts.

Chinese military exercises around Taiwan have become larger, more frequent and more aggressive. Chinese fighter jets regularly cross the median line in the Taiwan Strait. Naval encirclement drills increasingly resemble rehearsals for blockade or invasion operations.

American intelligence officials have repeatedly warned that Beijing may seek the capability to invade Taiwan before the end of this decade. Some military analysts believe the most dangerous period could arrive within the next two years, especially if Chinese leaders conclude that American political divisions or global overstretch have weakened Washington’s resolve.

That fear intensified after Trump’s Beijing summit. Inside Trump’s orbit, advisers are deeply divided on Taiwan. Traditional Republican hawks argue that abandoning Taiwan would destroy American credibility across Asia, embolden China and terrify allies such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

But another faction — increasingly influential in Trump’s nationalist movement — sees Taiwan through a harsher lens. Why, they ask, should America risk war with a nuclear superpower over an island 9,500 miles away? Why should American soldiers die for territory Washington itself does not formally recognise?

Trump’s own instincts often appear closer to that second camp. His rhetoric consistently frames alliances in transactional terms. He views geopolitics less through ideological commitments than through cost-benefit calculations. That is exactly what alarms Taiwan.

For decades, Taiwanese leaders relied on a tacit assumption: whatever American politicians said publicly, the United States would ultimately intervene militarily to stop a Chinese invasion. Today that certainty is eroding. Yet paradoxically, Trump’s comments may strengthen Taiwanese nationalism rather than weaken it.

Taiwan’s younger generation increasingly identifies solely as Taiwanese rather than Chinese. Democratic freedoms, open elections and a vibrant civil society have created a political identity radically different from authoritarian mainland China. Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong only deepened Taiwanese distrust of Chinese promises about “one country, two systems”.

So while Trump’s remarks rattled Taiwan’s leadership, they have not changed the island’s resolve. Taiwan’s response this week was calm but defiant. It declared itself sovereign again — carefully avoiding a formal declaration of independence that could trigger war, yet refusing to retreat psychologically. This balancing act defines Taiwan’s existence.

It behaves like an independent nation. It has its own military, passport, elections, currency and government. Yet most of the world avoids recognising it officially because countries fear China’s economic and diplomatic retaliation.

Even powerful democracies tread cautiously. Few are willing to jeopardise trade with Beijing for symbolic recognition of Taiwan. That diplomatic isolation is precisely what China wants. Beijing’s long-term strategy is not necessarily immediate invasion. It is gradual suffocation: diplomatic exclusion, military intimidation, economic pressure and psychological exhaustion designed to convince Taiwan resistance is futile. But history suggests Taiwan may not bend so easily.

The island has evolved from authoritarian rule into one of Asia’s most robust democracies. Its people have watched Hong Kong lose freedoms once guaranteed by Beijing. They have watched Ukraine fight a larger aggressor. And now they are watching America signal uncertainty.

The danger is that all three actors — China, Taiwan and the United States — may increasingly misread one another. China believes history is on its side. Taiwan believes democracy and identity make surrender impossible. America believes ambiguity preserves peace. But ambiguity becomes harder to sustain when military drills intensify, nationalist politics harden and presidents speak too candidly.

Trump may have intended to calm tensions with Beijing. Instead, he may have exposed the deepest truth of the Taiwan crisis: everyone wants to avoid war, yet all sides are preparing for the possibility that it may already be coming. (IPA Service)