Brexit 10 years on – a disastrous decision decades in the making

by · EUobserver

Nigel Farage unveils anti-immigrant billboard during the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership. His central slogan, ‘Take Back Control’, could not have been more effective (Photo: Reuters)

Opinion

Unlock article and share
By Iain Quinn,
Tallahassee, Florida
,

Tuesday, 23 June 2026, marks the 10th anniversary of the UK decision to leave the European  Union. Ten years on has anything been learned? 

What makes Brexit different to other votes is the shock it caused for so many. As the  subsequent negotiations demonstrated, the government was unprepared – but so were many who looked on in disbelief.

This was not like a general election but rather a raw  wound that caused division not only within the country but also within families. Very quickly the question of who to blame became a central topic.

Social media was full of  insults and words like ‘betrayal’, ‘idiocy’ and ‘bigoted’ overtook policy questions as both politicians and the media respectively huddled towards a predictable path of blame.

But the majority of the voters (51.89 percent to 48.11 percent) weren’t sold on the idea that the UK relationship with the EU was necessary.

After John Major had refused a referendum over the Maastricht treaty (1992-1993) which included the free movement of people, the clock had begun to tick.

Ultimately, the central question would not be whether the UK was opposed to immigration but whether the government could control the numbers.  Those who suggested in 2016 that people who voted to leave the EU were anti-immigrant simplified the argument for a crude political advantage. 

Years of social divisions caused by the government of Margaret Thatcher (1979-1990) were reinforced by a current Conservative government that believed it knew best. 

Thatcher had removed the real power of the Left by both reducing the influence of the  unions and demoralising a significant constituency of voters through mass redundancies across major industries.

Real power came from an unflinching resolve and Thatcher didn’t blink.

But for those in 2016 that remembered the late 1970s and 1980s and then  heard George Osborne’s threat as chancellor of a punishment budget if the UK left the EU, there was a decided familiarity. But this time, the opposition wasn’t the Iron Lady, and the Westminster oratory was weak on substance and delivery.

Successive  governments had moved on from deindustrialisation, but a chasm of distrust had been gradually opened between Westminster and the public. The world of spin had bolstered this, with an opaque vagueness to the Remain arguments - and this further weakened the  established political structure. 

Could the outcome of the referendum have been different? Yes, possibly.

When Tony  Blair made the political decision to move Labour to the centre it was transformative for the party from an electoral perspective. But when allied to a culture of catchy messaging there was an increasing hollowness. Indeed, Westminster was ultimately outplayed in  its own game.

"Take Back Control" could not have been simpler or more effective. 

The political climate also didn’t help. The discussions around entry into Europe in 1973  or the need for a referendum in 1992 were serious by comparison to those in 2016.

Cameron bluffs - and loses

The ineffectual nature of the debates before the referendum and then the responses afterwards showed that many in Westminster, including David Cameron, were woefully out of touch.

The fact that the referendum had been called to satisfy eurosceptic MPs in his own party meant that it would always be a risky process as the public knew the initial motives. Party politics were now to lose to a democratic vote. 

Many commentators criticised Leave voters and quickly lambasted those who they  thought had held grudges with Conservative politicians.

But it wasn’t that simple. The  economic problems of the UK were no longer hurting only select working class communities but a struggling middle class.

The optimism and confidence of Blair’s earlier ‘Cool Britannia’ wasn’t being felt and the government of Cameron couldn’t  convincingly patch the arguments together.

With both major parties, Labour and Conservatives, right of centre it made little difference who was in power and neither seemed to be listening. However,  the days of blaming the EU for every complaint had come to an end.

But has anything been learned? 

The short answer is no. Nigel Farage did not achieve his particular success with Brexit because he was known as a strong leader. He succeeded because he wasn’t challenged and, critically, because of an effort to ignore him. The public was able to watch all of this unfold. As the political climate in Westminster became more remote, the public had chosen to listen to someone else.  

If the recent growth of Reform UK tells us anything, it is that Westminster has still not  heard the message.

A lesson from Brexit is that expectations for politicians are changing as the public seeks greater accountability. Without new, persuasive policies that are  clearly enunciated, the political class that has been comfortably ensconced should be  unsurprised by continued upheaval. Listen and lead or continue to lose.

Unlock article and share

Latest from Brexit

Will Starmer’s successor keep working on the UK Brexit ‘reset’?

As EU leaders dine, 70,000 voters in the north of England pick a new UK PM

Latest from EU and the World

Trump went too far this time, and got a Meloni tongue-lashing

Israel has bombed and bulldozed €150m of EU-funded buildings in Gaza and West Bank – but never paid back a cent

Latest from UK

What UK voters can learn from the Irish gay-rights movement on how to avert a Farage nightmare

Trump’s America resettled more refugees than the EU and UK combined last year

Latest from Opinion

From double standards to fairness: A turning point for EU food trade policy 

Are oil markets too optimistic?

Nigel Farage unveils anti-immigrant billboard during the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership. His central slogan, 'Take Back Control', could not have been more effective (Photo: Reuters)

Topics

Author Bio

Iain Quinn is the author of Cultural Dissonance: Brexit Reconsidered (The Lutterworth Press/Boydell and Brewer, 2026) and a professor at Florida State University.

+ Follow author by email