Swiss referendum on 10‑million population cap tests appetite for migration curb
by https://euobserver.com/author/sona-weissova/ · EUobserverSwiss Gruyeres flag thrower. Source: Wkicommons/ Jess & Peter.
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By Soňa Weissová,
Bratislava
,
The Swiss are facing one of the most important referendums of recent years. If it passed, it could lead to a complete ban on migration.
The growing influence of far-right political parties in Europe is putting pressure on governments to introduce stricter migration rules. Switzerland could, however, take this idea to an even higher level on 14 June by capping the population at ten million.
If a majority of citizens support the plan of the anti-immigration Swiss People’s Party (SVP), the government will have to adopt measures in two phases to reduce immigration.
Opinion polls suggest that the vote will be a near dead heat.
The Swiss take part in popular votes four times a year. On average, they approve one in ten initiatives.
Last year, 9.1 million people lived in Switzerland. But the population is growing rapidly – over the past decade it has increased by roughly 10 percent. Since 2000 it has risen by about 23 percent, which is faster than in most European countries.
The bulk of the new arrivals have been from the EU and the new restrictions would affect them as well.
How it is supposed to work
In 2023, the SVP came up with the idea of No to a 10-million Switzerland and presented it as a way to preserve the Swiss way of life and protect the environment from excessive human activity.
The proposal seeks to amend the Swiss constitution so that the government would be obliged to take measures to limit population growth if the number of inhabitants – including Swiss citizens and foreign residents – reached 9.5 million before 2050.
In the first phase, the measures would consist of tightening asylum law, family reunification and the issuing of residence permits.
According to the proposal, the Swiss government should also “seek to renegotiate international agreements that encourage population growth”.
If the threshold of 10 million inhabitants were exceeded, the authorities would be obliged to “take all available measures” to comply with the population cap, including withdrawing from international treaties that the proposal describes as “encouraging population growth”.
If the population did not fall below the approved limit within two years, Switzerland would, as a last resort, terminate its agreement on the free movement of persons with the EU.
This would have far-reaching consequences, as several other bilateral agreements with the EU would automatically be cancelled. Switzerland’s access to the EU single market would also be at stake.
At the same time, the residence rights of approximately 1.5 million EU citizens who live and work in Switzerland would be called into question.
Opponents of the cap – the government and business – argue that it could lead to a shortage of workers with key skills in healthcare, public transport, hospitality and construction.
The largest and most influential umbrella organisation of Swiss business and industry, Economiesuisse, described the proposal as an “initiative of chaos”.
“Our country will continue to depend on labour migration in the future,” the organisation said in a joint paper with the Swiss Employers’ Association, predicting that without foreign workers companies would relocate abroad.
Critics of the initiative also said the measure would damage the competitiveness of the Swiss economy and hurt relations with the EU.
Social Democratic justice minister Beat Jans described the vote as a “Swiss Brexit moment” and warned that it could conflict with various agreements with the EU, especially the agreement on the free movement of workers.
“A ‘yes’ vote would isolate us,” Jans said on the campaign trail, where he has been warning against what he called a “harmful and dangerous” initiative.
However, the population cap idea has struck a sensitive nerve in a country that has long grappled with the impact of immigration. More than one quarter of residents do not have Swiss citizenship, one of the highest shares in Europe. Many people complain about extremely high rents, traffic jams and overcrowded trains and buses, which reduce quality of life.
Farage’s drinking buddy
The Swiss People’s Party is the largest party in the Swiss parliament, winning 28 percent at the last election. It has long faced accusations of stoking xenophobic and racist sentiment.
The author of the idea to organise the referendum is a Swiss banker with experience in London’s City and on New York’s Wall Street. Thomas Matter is one of the leading figures in the SVP.
“Nothing against multiculturalism,” he said in a report by Neue Zürcher Zeitung, “as long as Swiss culturalism has the majority.” The initiative is primarily aimed at the asylum system.
The British daily The Times noted that as a young financier, Matter worked in the London office of US investment bank Merrill Lynch. He was often seen in the same wine bar as Reform party leader and Brexit guru Nigel Farage, who also began his career in London’s financial district, the City.
“He was great fun,” Matter recalled as he prepared for one of his appearances. “I always knew if he was there as soon as I walked in, because I could hear his voice.” He claimed they never talked about politics.
More than three decades later, Matter hopes that the referendum on restricting migration will land a blow against his country’s establishment, worthy of his former British drinking companion.
“This population explosion cannot go on like this,” Matter claimed in the eastern Swiss village of Flims. His supporters gathered there at his party’s stand in the village centre, drinking local white wine and beer and eating sausages.
“If we lose on 14 June, another two to three million people will come over the next twenty years and Switzerland will not cope,” Matter said.
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Swiss Gruyeres flag thrower. Source: Wkicommons/ Jess & Peter.
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Author Bio
Soňa Weissová is a reporter for Denník N. She studied journalism at Comenius University and worked in several newsrooms of Slovak Radio from 2009 to 2024. In the 2016 Journalism Award, she was nominated for the Czechoslovak Public Choice Award for a radio series about Václav Havel. Since 2019, she has focused on foreign reporting, and following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine she served as head of the radio foreign news desk. At Denník N, she covers Austria, Germany, the European Union, and other current topics.
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