Cost of living dominates voters' concerns as four in five fear budget won't cover fuel hikes

FOUR IN FIVE voters do not believe any financial gains from next week’s budget will be enough to cover increased fuel costs this winter, according to new polling.

The latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll also shows Sinn Féin narrowly ahead as the country’s most popular party, while approval of party leader Mary Lou McDonald has risen by three points.

The findings come just days before Budget 2027 is unveiled on Tuesday, with the cost of living continuing to dominate voters’ concerns.

Asked whether any personal financial gains from taxation or social welfare measures in the budget would cover increased fuel costs this winter, 82% of respondents said no.

Just 7% believed they would, while 11% said they did not know.

Meanwhile, 37% of those surveyed said they expect to be worse off after the budget, compared with 16% who expect to be better off.

Another 40% expect their circumstances to remain unchanged, while 7% said they were unsure.

Cost of living was identified as one of the two most important issues facing the country by 59% of respondents, ahead of housing on 43% and immigration on 23%.

The poll also suggests strong support for reducing carbon tax in response to rising fuel costs, even if doing so means less funding is available for measures aimed at meeting climate targets.

Nearly half (47%) of those polled said they were strongly in favour of such a move and a further 24% were somewhat in favour.

By comparison, 25% were either strongly or somewhat against the proposal, while 4% were unsure.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has already confirmed that the government intends to reduce the carbon tax on home heating oil to the minimum level permitted under EU rules as part of next week’s budget.

Tax cuts top budget wishlist

Income tax cuts were the most popular option when respondents were asked what the government should prioritise in Budget 2027.

Advertisement

Some 41% chose income tax cuts, followed by universal energy supports on 22% and infrastructure spending on 16%.

Social welfare increases were selected by 10%, while 7% chose a reduction in childcare costs and 2% reducing the national debt.

When asked who should be prioritised in the budget, families with young children topped the list on 36%, followed by pensioners and older people on 33% and people with disabilities and carers on 32%.

Renters and first-time buyers were selected by 24%, while 17% chose single-income earners, 15% small businesses and 14% public-sector workers.

There was also substantial support for removing stamp duty for first-time buyers.

Some 68% said it should be removed for both new-build and second-hand homes, with another 9% supporting its removal for new-builds only.

Sinn Féin narrowly ahead

On party support, Sinn Féin remains narrowly ahead on 19%, despite falling two points since the previous poll.

Fine Gael is down one point to 18%, putting it level with Fianna Fáil, which has risen one point.

Independents and others are up two points to 12%, while the Social Democrats have risen one point to 11%.

Aontú remains unchanged on 8%, Independent Ireland falls two points to 5%, Labour rises one to 4%, while the Green Party is unchanged on 3% and Solidarity-People Before Profit remains on 2%.

Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns continues to have the highest approval rating among the party leaders included in the poll, rising one point to 41%.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin is also up one point to 38%, while McDonald’s approval has risen three points to 34%.

The increase for McDonald follows a week in which she was prominent in the renewed Drumcree dispute, joining First Minister Michelle O’Neill and protesters on the Garvaghy Road last Sunday and taking part in subsequent talks with Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Bryant. 

Tánaiste and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris is down one point to 33%, while Labour leader Ivana Bacik rises one point to 30% and Independent Ireland leader Michael Collins rises one to 27%.

The poll also found 62% disapprove of the government’s performance, compared with 29% who approve and 9% who said they did not know.