How is the Israeli election shaping up and just what might it mean for Palestine?

ON TUESDAY, VOTERS in Israel will go to the polls in what is being dubbed one of the most consequential elections since the State’s foundation in 1948. 

Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, is seeking to retain power, but he faces a tight race. 

Former IDF chief, Gadi Eisenkot, is Netanyahu’s top rival in the election, with polls placing the two neck and neck ahead of the 27 October vote.

His Yashar party is a new one, formed in 2025, a year after Eisenkot resigned from Netanyahu’s war cabinet after 11 months. 

He joined the cabinet in the wake of Hamas’ October 7 attack in 2023, in which nearly 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken back to Gaza as hostages, but tendered his resignation over his concern that Netanyahu had no plan for after the war on Hamas.

Eisenkot (66) says he is running to “save Israel”. He argues Netanyahu is pushing the country towards authoritarianism and has dragged Israel into “forever wars”, damaging its standing internationally. 

Much has been written about how the two men are opposites of each other in a lot of ways:

Where Netanyahu is bombastic with a fluent command of the English language, Eisenkot has limited English and is seen as serious and uncharismatic – something Netanyahu has sought to use against him, arguing that this, coupled with his lack of political experience, would allow world leaders to push him around.

Eisenkot’s working-class roots also come in contrast to Netanyahu, who comes from an elite family and whose father was a prominent professor in the United States.

The death of Eisenkot’s son, Gal, who was killed fighting in Gaza in December 2023, has contributed to Eisenkot’s popularity, with many voters in Israel empathising with his loss and grief.

But just how different are his policies from Netanyahu’s? 

Israel’s security and accountability for October 7 have been two focal points of this election. 

Eisenkot has pledged to launch a national inquiry into how the Hamas attack was handled, something Netanyahu’s government, which was in power at the time, has rejected. 

Eisenkot has sought to appeal to centrist and liberal voters by pledging to “protect judicial independence, the rule of law, minority rights and a free press”.

He has also promised to try to restore the international image of Israel, badly strained after three years of war and genocide in Gaza and violence in the occupied West Bank.

He has vowed to crack down on West Bank settlers who have attacked Palestinians with impunity and recently beat up an American journalist and a French mayor, decrying the incidents as “Jewish terror” abetted by Netanyahu’s government.

But the military man is no peacenik. He has even sought to play to the right of Netanyahu by vowing no Palestinian State, replaying clips from an earlier political era in which the long-serving prime minister begrudgingly voiced openness to the idea under US pressure.

Commanding the military during the 2006 war with Hezbollah, Eisenkot devised the so-called “Dahiya doctrine”, named after a Beirut suburb, in which Israel vowed massive force against civilian infrastructure in areas populated by the Lebanese militants.

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Israel has adopted the doctrine again in Gaza, causing destruction that critics say amounts to war crimes, an assertion disputed by Israel.

On Gaza, Eisenkot has vowed to end Hamas rule within 18 months.

He said this could be achieved either through the implementation of US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan, which envisages Hamas’s gradual disarmament and a transfer of power, or through “creative operations” aimed at destroying the movement’s military wing.

All in all, when it comes to Palestine, an electoral win for Eisenkot would not result in any sweeping policy changes. 

Outcome and fringe actors

Tuesday’s vote is expected to be close, with more than half a million young Israelis due to vote for the first time.

Surveys show they overwhelmingly identify as centre-right or right-wing.

A poll of 543 first-time voters published by Israeli outlet Ynet showed some 16 per cent supporting either far-right Ben Gvir’s ultranationalist Otzma Yehudit party or the far-right Religious Zionism party of finance minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Polls show Gvir’s party winning eight or nine seats in the 120-member parliament (known as the Knesset), making it the first time it will win a mandate running as a standalone entity.

Gvir, who has been convicted at least eight times in Israeli courts before becoming minister, on charges including supporting a terror organisation and incitement to racism, has become the firebrand face of Israel’s far-right.

His political influence has skyrocketed since joining Netanyahu’s coalition four years ago.

As national security minister with responsibility for the police, Gvir has helped more than 200,000 Israelis gain access to firearms and boasts frequently about the worsening conditions for Palestinian detainees in Israeli jails.

And he has used his place in the cabinet to push the government to take more maximalist positions in Israel’s multi-front wars.

The lawyer-turned-politician was barred from serving in the military in his youth over his support for extremist right-wing groups.

Now, he says he will demand the defence minister post if Netanyahu’s bloc wins again on 27 October.

Israel uses a proportional representation voting system, which has meant governments have always been coalitions of multiple parties.

As a result, it may take weeks or even months before the next government is formed.

In the three-year period between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five separate elections as parties could not form a coalition. 

The official result for this year’s election is set to be published on 4 November, with preliminary results published next Wednesday. 

Includes reporting from AFP