New UN report links Joseph Kabila more closely to AFC/M23

A new United Nations Group of Experts report paints the clearest picture yet of the AFC/M23’s military strength and political ambitions in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, while highlighting the movement’s increasingly close ties with former President Joseph Kabila. The report suggests that this evolving relationship could culminate in a major restructuring of the rebel alliance, even as fighting continues across North and South Kivu.

Former President Joseph Kabila has become an increasingly prominent figure in the AFC/M23's political trajectory, according to the UN Group of Experts. Investigators say Kabila has visited territories under the movement's control since May 2025 and held meetings with its leadership, underscoring what the report describes as a growing political association.

The experts cite multiple sources indicating that discussions are underway to fundamentally restructure the movement, including the possibility of adopting a new name. The reported changes reflect an effort to broaden the alliance's political appeal while reinforcing its long-term ambitions in eastern DRC.

UN estimates AFC/M23 force at 30,000 fighters

The report estimates the AFC/M23 now commands around 30,000 fighters, making it one of the largest armed movements operating in the eastern DRC.

According to the experts, the force includes veterans from the former CNDP and the original 2012 M23 rebellion, recruits mobilized since 2021 from the Rwandan diaspora and refugee camps, as well as thousands of former members of the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC), police officers and Wazalendo fighters. Many of the latter are believed to have either defected or been captured following the fall of Goma.

Rwandan military presence remains substantial

The UN estimates that between 14,000 and 18,000 Rwandan soldiers were deployed across North and South Kivu as of late December 2025. Rather than indicating a withdrawal, subsequent troop movements are believed to represent routine rotations.

The report identifies General Vincent Nyakarundi as overseeing operations, while Generals Eugene Nkubito and Vincent Gatama reportedly command forces in North and South Kivu, supported by General Stanislas Gashugi's special forces. The experts also identify former General James Kabarebe, now a senior defence adviser to President Paul Kagame, as the official responsible for coordinating with both AFC/M23 and Kabila.

The report notes that Rwandan authorities had not responded to requests for comment before its publication.

Federal ambitions replace integration into the FARDC

Politically, the experts say AFC/M23 is no longer presenting itself as a movement seeking reintegration into the national army. Instead, it advocates the creation of a "Federal Republic of Congo" and intends to establish and lead a future federal army under such a system.

As an alternative objective, the report says the movement is also considering the creation of an autonomous region in eastern DRC if broader constitutional change proves unattainable.

All sides accused of violations

While the report identifies AFC/M23 as the leading perpetrator of documented human rights violations during 2025, it also accuses the FARDC of being the second-largest violator, with 789 documented cases.

The experts further allege that Congolese authorities supplied weapons to Wazalendo militias in breach of the UN arms embargo and maintained operational cooperation with the FDLR, an armed group under UN sanctions that Kinshasa has repeatedly pledged to dismantle.

A movement preparing for its next phase

Beyond documenting battlefield developments, the UN report suggests AFC/M23 is preparing for a new political phase. The movement's expanding military capacity, its stated constitutional ambitions and its increasingly visible relationship with Joseph Kabila point to an effort to transform itself from a rebel coalition into a broader political force, even as conflict continues to reshape eastern DRC.