How will LAC agreement pan out on the border?

What follows the disengagement between Indian and Chinese troops at Depsang and Demchok in the eastern Ladakh sector? What is the status at the other friction points? How did India and China arrive at an agreement post the Galwan clash of 2020? What happens to the buffer zones?

The story so far:

On October 21, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced that an agreement had been reached with China on “patrolling arrangements” along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the India-China border areas, leading to “disengagement and a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020.”

What is happening on the ground?

Disengagement is under way in full swing at Depsang and Demchok in eastern Ladakh. Armies of India and China are in the process of removing all temporary and semi-permanent structures that were set up since April 2020, Army sources said. The entire process is expected to be completed by October 29. Patrolling will resume in both areas by month-end and both sides will “coordinate” to avoid face-offs.

The agreement was reached after a series of talks at the political, diplomatic, and military levels. A broad framework agreement was reached first at the diplomatic level before a detailed technical agreement for ground implementation was concluded between the Corps Commanders of the two countries last Monday (October 21, 2024). This is only with respect to the last two remaining friction points — Depsang and Demchok — and there is no change in status at the other friction points where buffer zones were set up since the disengagement from 2020-2022.

Since April 2020, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has amassed a large number of troops and armaments in eastern Ladakh and other areas along the 3,488 km LAC. The PLA moved into Indian territory and built fortified structures and defences, in an attempt to permanently alter the status quo on the ground. While there are differences in perception of the alignment of the LAC, both sides have, over the years, concluded a series of agreements to maintain peace at the border.

On May 5, 2020, clashes erupted on the north bank of Pangong Tso in which over 70 Indian soldiers were injured. The norm was that the Indian Army would patrol the area up to Finger 8, and the Chinese ingress blocked this routine. On May 9, 2020 clashes were reported at Naku La in north Sikkim. India responded by mobilising additional troops and equipment to match the Chinese build-up. Since then, both sides have amassed over 50,000 troops on each side, deployed a range of long-range firepower and equipment, and have undertaken massive infrastructure build-up.

What about Arunachal Pradesh?

According to official sources, there was also an understanding over Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh “that Chinese patrols will be allowed like before and their movement will not be blocked.” Yangtse in Tawang is one of the identified disputed areas between the two countries and has witnessed consistent transgressions since 2011. 

On December 9, 2022, Indian soldiers clashed with the Chinese resulting in injuries. This was the first such incident since June 15, 2020, when 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a clash with the Chinese PLA at Galwan. The face-off led to a physical scuffle in which the Indian Army prevented the PLA from transgressing into Indian territory, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had said in a statement. Defence sources had stated then that in several areas along the LAC in the Tawang sector, both sides patrol the area up to their claim lines, a trend since 2006.

Army sources denied any “quid pro quo” in the latest agreement but admitted that talks are on in all sectors along the LAC.

What is the way forward?

The disengagement process at five friction points was completed in September 2022. Depsang and Demchok proved to be tricky, and the latest agreement on disengagement brings hope for the next steps, which are de-escalation and de-induction. Details on new patrolling norms will have to be worked out to remove the buffer zones and resume patrolling as earlier.

Sounding a cautionary note on this, Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi said last week they are “trying to restore” trust, that “we are not creeping” in the buffer zones created and to reassure each other. “... As we restore the trust, the other stages will also follow through soon,” he added. Former diplomats and military officers also advised caution on the continued presence of buffer zones which are in the Indian territory.

The current agreement, Army sources said, will restore the ground status to one that existed before April 2020 at Depsang and Demchok. This means that the Indian Army will again be able to patrol up to the Patrolling Points (PP) 10, 11, 11A, 12, and 13 in the strategic Depsang area which have been off limits since the stand-off. 

How many patrolling points are there?

There are 65 PPs starting from Karakoram pass to Chumur which are to be patrolled regularly by Indian forces. According to one of the research papers submitted at the annual Director General of Police conference in January 2023, “Out of 65 PPs, our [India’s] presence is lost in 26 PPs due to restrictive or no patrolling by the Indian Security Forces (ISF). Later on, China forces us to accept the fact that, as such areas have not seen the presence of ISFs or civilians since long, the Chinese were present in these areas. This leads to a shift in the border under control of ISFs towards Indian side and a buffer zone is created in all such pockets which ultimately leads to loss of control over these areas by India. This tactic of PLA to grab land inch-by-inch is known as ‘Salami Slicing’.” 

This underscores why patrolling is critical along the LAC, particularly in the strategic Depsang plains. On one side, the PLA ingress threatens Indian positions at Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) by bringing Chinese troops closer to the 255 km-long crucial Darbuk-Skyok-DBO road. Also, Depsang is next to the Karakoram pass overlooking the strategic Saltoro ridge and Siachen glacier, which former Army Chief General Manoj Naravane had termed a “point of collusivity” between China and Pakistan. 

Defence sources have noted in the past that while PPs, benchmark locations mutually agreed to by both India and China, are sacrosanct, the perception of the LAC is not. The PPs, largely located on the Limit of Patrolling, have been in vogue since 1996, based on the China Study Group guidelines, they added.

The traditional grazing grounds have served as pastures for the semi-nomadic community of Changthang region (Rebos) and given the scarcity of the rich pastures, they would traditionally venture into the areas close to the PPs. “Since 2014, enhanced restrictions on the grazing movement and areas have been imposed on the Rebos by ISFs and this has caused some resentment against them,” the paper noted. The issue of grazing grounds has been a major friction point between India and China and the latest agreement addresses that in the Demchok area.

In talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at Kazan, it was agreed that the Special Representatives on the boundary question, the apex mechanism to find a political resolution, are expected to meet at an early date to take forward the stalled process.

Published - October 27, 2024 04:11 am IST