Analysis: 92% in West Bengal, 85% in Tamil Nadu elections – What these highest ever turnouts say about who may win

Assembly Elections 2026: West Bengal and Tamil Nadu recorded their highest-ever voter turnout, with 92.28% and 85.05% respectively. Women voted in higher numbers than men in both states. Analysts said turnout alone doesn’t predict outcomes, with attention moving to gender, youth, regional patterns, SIR revisions and the role of important political players.

New Delhi: The first phase of polling in West Bengal and the full vote in Tamil Nadu brought record turnout, with both states crossing their highest-ever participation levels. West Bengal recorded 92.28 per cent turnout, while Tamil Nadu reached 85.05 per cent, the highest since Independence.

Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar thanked voters in both states and called the higher turnout a strong show of public participation.

In West Bengal, the stakes are high for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress (TMC), which is aiming for another term. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to expand its presence in the state and challenge what it sees as a stronghold of the TMC.

Campaigning for the next phase has picked up speed. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on April 23 targeted Mamata over the “jhal muri” row, while she accused Union Home Minister Amit Shah of putting pressure on poll officials.

Tamil Nadu saw a different kind of contest. Chief Minister MK Stalin is looking to retain power, something even his father Muthuvel Karunanidhi never achieved.

On the other hand, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) chief Edappadi K. Palaniswami is trying to position himself as the main challenger.

There is also a new face in the spotlight. Actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) have brought fresh energy, especially among young and urban voters.

What high turnout does – and does not – tell us

Following such a high turnout, a question everyone is asking is whether it points to change or support for the incumbent governments.

Pollster Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India said the usual assumption about turnout does not always hold. “The idea that high turnout helps either the ruling party or the challenger is an old theory. There is no clear evidence from the past 40 years to support it,” he said.

Part of the rise in turnout could be due to the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise, under which names of around 91 lakh people, including those who have died, were deleted from electoral rolls. This reduced the baseline, which made the turnout percentage in West Bengal look higher.

Gender and age – The two factors to look at

Gupta said what matters more is who voted, not only the total number of voters. In Tamil Nadu, he said age and gender are the two main factors influencing the contest. Caste, which has traditionally been a dominant factor in the previous elections, according to him, may not play the same role this time.

He also said Vijay could become an important factor because of his appeal among younger voters.

On West Bengal, he said gender could play a major role. He pointed out that men and women have voted differently in recent elections in the state and this trend could again influence the outcome.

He said the Presidency region, one of the five administrative divisions of West Bengal that is headquartered in Kolkata, is where the real battle will be closely watched. How voters behave there, especially across male and female voters, could play a big role in deciding the final result.

The region comprises five districts (Kolkata, Howrah, Nadia, North 24 Parganas and South 24 Parganas) and has 108 assembly constituencies. It is a large and crucial block in West Bengal’s electoral map. The region has traditionally backed the TMC, helping it build its overall numbers.

The BJP has not been able to make strong inroads in this region so far. In earlier elections, the party managed to win only a limited number of seats in this region. But its tally here was much lower compared to its gains in areas such as Medinipur, Vardhaman and North Bengal.

Referring to past numbers to explain the difference, he said that in the 2016 election, the BJP could secure only 14 seats in this region, while its presence improved to 28 segments in the 2021 polls, though still far behind the TMC in overall dominance.

This is why, he said, even a small rise in the BJP’s numbers in the Presidency region could have a larger impact on the final outcome, given the size of the region and its past voting pattern.

He also said that Malda and Murshidabad continue to be strongholds of the TMC, which makes the contest in the Presidency belt even more important in determining the final result.

Yashwant Deshmukh, the founder-director of C-Voter, said higher turnout should be seen in context. “The baseline has become lower, so a higher turnout within that universe is not a statistical surprise,” he said.

He added that female turnout has been rising since 2020 and has often influenced election outcomes.

According to him, when women vote in higher numbers, parties such as the TMC and the AIADMK have tended to gain. But when male turnout is higher, parties such as the BJP in West Bengal and the DMK in Tamil Nadu have benefited.

He also pointed out that urban turnout in Tamil Nadu appeared to be at par with rural turnout, which opens up more questions about voting behaviour in cities.

Sanjay Kumar, director at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies and co-convenor of the Lokniti programme of the CSDS, also stressed the role of women voters. He said that in many elections, whenever women have voted in higher numbers than men, they have backed the TMC in West Bengal and the AIDMK in Tamil Nadu.

The X factors: SIR, Vijay and crucial regions

Apart from voters’ age and gender, a few other elements are also being tracked.

In Tamil Nadu, Vijay’s entry has added a new layer. Experts say his support base overlaps with young voters and sections that earlier backed both the DMK and the AIADMK. “He drew attention, but how far that turned into votes will be clear only after counting,” Kumar said.

He said younger voters could play a bigger role in Tamil Nadu this time. He explained that if urban turnout has increased, it may point to higher participation from youth.

He also said youth voters in West Bengal may lean towards the BJP, though their impact may be more visible in Tamil Nadu.

Kumar said the SIR exercise could influence results. “It will have an impact to some extent as deletions were not uniform and the voting patterns of those voters are known,” he said, adding that it could affect close contests.

Migrants return to vote

Another visible trend in West Bengal was the return of migrant workers to vote. Many travelled back to their constituencies because of the concern that their names would be removed from voter lists or that they could lose access to welfare schemes.

Deshmukh said a similar pattern was seen earlier in Bihar, where many migrants travelled back due to concerns about losing their names from voter lists or missing out on welfare schemes. “Many migrants went back to vote due to fear about losing benefits. Their voting choice is not easy to predict. Post-poll data will give a clearer picture,” he said.

He explained that this does not automatically translate into votes against or in favour of any one party. “It is an oversimplification to link deletions directly to any party’s gain. Bihar’s results showed that clearly,” he said, adding that only post-poll data will show how these voters actually voted.

What history suggests

Looking at past trends, Kumar said the ruling parties may still have an edge. “If we go by earlier patterns, incumbents seem to have a better chance than challengers,” he said.

The numbers from polling day have set the stage. The next phases and the final vote count will decide how these trends translate into results.