Opposition at crossroad: From West Bengal to Tamil Nadu, how the 2026 election results could flip India’s political power balance

The 2026 results now place several major Opposition leaders under pressure. Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu and Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala are all seemingly facing exits from power.

New Delhi: The 2026 assembly election results, as counting continues in four states and one union territory, are pointing towards major changes in India’s political direction. Election Commission (EC) numbers suggest the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has got a breakthrough in West Bengal, while also securing another term in Assam.

In Tamil Nadu, actor Vijay’s newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is emerging as the single largest party. In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is ahead in the race to form the next government. Puducherry, meanwhile, is seeing a more divided picture with no clear dominance.

In West Bengal, the BJP is close to forming a government in the state for the first time. This would be a major turning point in a state where the party has never held power.

The campaign in Bengal saw intense political competition. Issues such as the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, allegations of rigging and strong political polarisation defined the election atmosphere.

Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari, who contested from Nandigram and also faced Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in Bhabanipur, said he was confident about the outcome. He stated that the BJP would form the government and that he expected to win his own seat comfortably.

Mamata’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) has governed West Bengal since 2011 and was seeking a fourth straight term.

Assam: BJP moves toward third consecutive term

In Assam, the BJP under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is heading toward a third straight term. The party is ahead in 82 of the 126 assembly seats, while the Congress trails with leads in 19 seats.

Exit polls had pointed towards a strong BJP performance, and the ongoing trends are broadly aligned with those expectations.

Tamil Nadu: TVK emerges as a new political force

Tamil Nadu is witnessing one of its most important electoral developments in recent years. Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has taken leads, positioning itself as the largest party in the state.

The AIADMK is presently in third place, while the ruling DMK led by Chief Minister MK Stalin is in second position based on leads.

The DMK has been in power for the last five years. If TVK holds its position, it would end the long-standing dominance of the Dravidian political structure built around DMK and AIADMK.

Vijay’s entry into politics and his party’s performance is coming despite a difficult backdrop, including a stampede at a rally in September 2025 that led to more than 40 deaths. Even with that incident in the background, TVK has managed a strong debut, placing Vijay among actor-politicians who have made an early impact in electoral politics.

Kerala: UDF ahead, LDF faces setback

In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has taken a clear lead as counting continues. This points towards a possible return to power for the alliance, while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) government under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan appears set to lose ground.

Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee chief Sunny Joseph expressed confidence that the alliance could reach around 100 seats in the 140-member assembly.

A change in Kerala would also give the Congress party control of a southern state at a time when its presence has weakened in several regions.

Puducherry: Divided picture continues

In Puducherry, the 30-member assembly shows the All India NR Congress leading in 12 seats. Both the Congress and the BJP are ahead in one and three seats respectively, keeping the overall outcome open as counting continues.

A change in politics across states

These results come after a series of electoral gains for the BJP in recent years. The party’s national rise has continued since 2014, with multiple state-level victories strengthening its position.

In February 2025, the BJP defeated the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, ending Arvind Kejriwal’s tenure as chief minister. Later, in November 2025, the JD(U)-led NDA secured a strong win in Bihar, bringing Nitish Kumar back as chief minister, although he stepped down in April 2026.

The 2026 results now place several major Opposition leaders under pressure. Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu and Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala are all seemingly facing exits from power.

With fewer regional leaders holding chief ministerial positions, the structure of the Opposition could change in the coming months.

For the Congress, a possible return in Kerala offers some relief and a stronger base in the south. Party leaders see it as important for rebuilding presence in state politics and strengthening leadership roles at the national level.

For the BJP, gains in West Bengal would signify a major expansion into eastern India, adding another large state to its governing footprint and further broadening its reach across regions.