What Does Bangladesh Want From India; Will Dhaka Turn Tough On New Delhi After Elections?

New Delhi: Since August, last year, following the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power, relations between Bangladesh and India are tense. As the country prepares for elections in February next year, New Delhi has emerged as a prominent issue in domestic politics.

The Indian High Commission in Dhaka, along with its assistant missions across the country, has been facing threats in recent weeks. India is closely watching the upcoming elections, as the outcome could influence bilateral relations for years to come.

The recent unrest in the country began after the killing of 32-year-old Sharif Usman Hadi on December 12. He had been part of the movement that led to Hasina’s removal on August 5, 2024. He was shot in the head in Dhaka by masked attackers on a motorcycle while launching his campaign for the February elections. He died six days later, on December 18.

Following his death, social media claims suggested that the attackers had crossed into India, which triggered anger among Hadi’s supporters. Crowds began gathering near the Indian High Commission in Dhaka, with leaders of the National Citizen Party demanding the removal of the Indian High Commissioner.

In addition to Dhaka, India maintains assistant High Commissions in Chattogram, Rajshahi, Khulna and Sylhet. Protests and threats forced visa application centres to close for a day. India has summoned the Bangladesh ambassador in Delhi and requested authorities in Dhaka to ensure the security of its missions.

Attacks have also targeted media offices in Bangladesh. Publications such as The Daily Star and Prothom Alo were affected. Hasina’s critics have accused these media houses of being allies of India, although both publications had opposed her government and supported last year’s student-led protests.

Since August 2024, Hasina has been residing in India. She has been sentenced to death in Bangladesh, and the interim government led by Mohammad Yunus has demanded her extradition, which India has declined. The Bangladesh government has repeatedly expressed displeasure over India’s refusal.

The international community, including India, is closely observing the elections. New Delhi emphasised on December 14 that it supports free, fair and inclusive elections in Bangladesh conducted in a peaceful environment.

Analysts say that “inclusive” implicitly refers to including Hasina’s Awami League in the electoral process, though the Bangladeshi government has avoided using that term, stating only its aim for high-standard elections that encourage voter participation. The interim government argued that such an environment has not existed in the past 15 years.

Bangladesh’s foreign affairs advisor, Tauhid Hussain, reportedly rejected India’s comments, saying that Dhaka does not require advice from a neighbouring country on how to conduct its elections.

Historically, India has maintained strong relations with Hasina’s government. In contrast, its ties with a Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government have been less smooth. Former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, a BNP leader, is presently unwell. Earlier this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended prayers for her health and offered all possible assistance, a move seen as signalling India’s softer approach toward the BNP.

After taking charge of the BNP after her husband’s assassination in 1981, Zia has been an important player in Bangladesh politics for over four decades. She became Bangladesh’s first female prime minister in 1991 and served multiple terms.

The BNP boycotted the last three elections, but she had supported anti-Hasina movements that began in 2024. Her BNP is the largest political party in Bangladesh and is expected to have a strong presence in the upcoming elections.

Experts said that Hasina’s presence in power influenced Bangladesh’s current trajectory. Former Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao argued that while Hasina faced criticism abroad, she maintained stability in a complex and densely populated country with a history of violent political culture.

She highlighted that Hasina was not a revolutionary but a stabilising force who controlled extremist organisations, protected minorities and kept Bangladesh geopolitically relevant.

Rao further said that her critics overemphasised the role of democratic Opposition, allowing street-level extremist forces to gain strength, and that historical assumptions about toppling authoritarian leaders contributing to liberal democracy were misleading.

She argued that these miscalculations led to political destabilisation and normalised persecution after Hasina’s removal.

Other experts also share the same view. They also said Hasina was a barrier against violent elements. He explained that her removal created a power vacuum that extremist groups quickly exploited. Counter-revolutionary elements gained space, leading to widespread violence against religious minorities and Awami League supporters, while the interim government portrayed these events as a “revolution”.

They highlighted the irony of imposing election restrictions first on student organisations, then on the Awami League, before declaring democratic elections. He said that Hasina and her party members were sentenced to death in a show trial, deepening societal divisions, while the interim government remained unelected for over a year.

Bangladeshi political analyst Yusuf Khan countered that, blaming all current chaos on Hasina is an easy deflection. He argued that the primary responsibility for today’s disorder lies with her and the political structures she built.

Although Hasina can be criticised, she did not incite violence on the streets; whereas, the forces she resisted now perpetrate unrest, making repeated blame of her for post-removal chaos an evasion of responsibility.

As Bangladesh approaches its elections, the analysts warn that the country faces continued instability and political violence, regardless of the government that assumes power. The outcome will have implications for its relationship with India and the wider international community.