Russia's petrol crisis and what it means for Ukraine

Few people could have predicted at the start of this year that Russia would resort to importing consumer petrol.

The prevailing narrative at the time was that Russian forces were winning the war on the battlefield while pummeling Ukrainian cities with nightly swarms of drones and ballistic missiles - at a volume that Ukrainian forces were unable to match at the time.

However, earlier this month, Russian authorities began importing consumer petrol, mostly from India, and albeit in relatively small quantities to make up for a shortfall in many regions of the country.

The unorthodox move for one of the world's largest producers of oil is the result of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russian fuel depots and refineries, as well as strikes on oil tankers in the Black Sea, which Kyiv has intensified since May.

In June alone, there were reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on at least six oil refineries and seven fuel depots in Russia.

The pattern has continued this month, with Ukraine delivering at least 10 direct hits on oil refineries, causing a number of sites to pause production.

Some strikes on oil facilities have caused large fires at depots and repairs can take months to complete.

Last week, Reuters reported that Russian fuel production was currently covering 65% of demand for this time of year, based on interviews with industry sources.

Nowhere is the fuel shortage more acute than in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Kyiv's tactic is to isolate Crimea from Russia itself through repeated drone strikes on Russian tankers supplying the peninsula, having previously made the transport of large volumes of fuel via land routes untenable.

At the end of June, Russian-installed authorities in Crimea suspended sales of petrol to civilians, prioritising supplies for military vehicles.

Drivers on the peninsula can buy fuel again but supplies are intermittent and it is costing them more.

Russian state statistical office, Rosstat, reported that petrol prices around Sevastopol, the peninsula’s largest city, increased by 30% in the last week of June alone.

More than 20 Russian regions have reported petrol shortages since last month, and some have also introduced sales restrictions.

Rosstat figures show that consumer petrol prices across Russia are, on average, almost 20% higher than at this time last year.

Though Russians are still paying much lower prices for petrol than drivers in Europe - a litre of unleaded currently costs around €0.80 per litre in Russia - long queues and prices hikes are trying people’s patience.

Videos of Russian car owners queuing at petrol stations, and in some cases arguing over queue-jumping, have circulated on Russian social media in recent weeks.

Some have vented their frustration on-camera, offering a rare glimpse into the unvarnished views of Russians during wartime.

Peoples’ criticisms are not directed at the war in Ukraine directly, nor at any particularly Russian officials, and certainly not the country’s president.

But just as residents of Moscow and St Petersburg had complained about internet restrictions earlier in the summer, those having to queue hours for petrol and having to pay higher prices for the commodity, seem agitated.

In response, Russian authorities have allowed some refineries to produce and sell sub-standard petrol and diesel in order to boost supply.

Fuel shortages are not what Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Russians to be talking about in the fifth year of his war on Ukraine.

He has long promised economic stability and has kept Russia’s war economy in the black for the past four years by increasing oil export revenues, which have largely offset the impact of Western sanctions.

Russia’s leader has tried to calm the frustrations of ordinary Russians by saying that the fuel shortages are temporary and that Russian air defences need to deal with Ukrainian drones.

For Ukraine, the tactic of targeting Russian oil facilities this summer has already been a success.

Ukraine had employed drones to strike Russian oil refineries sporadically since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

But since last winter, Kyiv has markedly increased the volume of strikes as Ukraine’s defence sector continues to manufacture more sophisticated long-range drones and in greater numbers too.

The initial surge in Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil plants last winter was in response to Russia’s relentless attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, forcing Ukrainians in large cities to endure freezing sub-zero temperatures in their apartments.

But Ukraine’s decision to escalate its drone offensive on oil facilities inside Russia this summer appears to have been carefully timed, rather than a direct response to Russia's escalating ballistic missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and other cities, attacks that have killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians in recent weeks.

Demand for petrol in Russia peaks during the summer months when more people drive longer distances for holidays and farm production goes into overdrive.

Whether Kyiv’s main goal was to sow discontent among the Russian public or damage the Kremlin’s oil export revenues is not known, but the tactics have caused significant disruption to the Russian economy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called the strikes part of Ukraine’s "long-range sanctions" against Russia.

After four years of asking for long-range US weaponry to strike targets deep inside Russia, Ukraine is now doing that job with its own drone technology.

This week’s decision by Mr Zelensky to replace his 35-year-old defence minister Mykhailo Federov - over a dispute between him and senior military commanders - is unlikely to change Ukraine’s deep-strike strategy against Russian oil facilities.

Incoming defence minister Yevhenii Khmara was previously the acting head of the Ukrainian intelligence service, the SBU, and had been central in planning Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign against Russia.

He is unlikely to change course now.

That means more disruption is in store for Russians trying to buy fuel at petrol stations and the Kremlin is going to have to explain to its public why the country needs to keep importing more consumer fuel.

The strikes on Russian oil sites, and the disruption they cause, question the narrative that Russia is winning the war and could end up giving Ukraine a stronger hand at eventual peace talks.