Bye-elections: 5 things to look out for during counting

After weeks of campaigning, boxes open in Dublin's RDS and Salthill's Lawn Tennis Club for the counting of votes in the Dublin Central and Galway West bye-elections.

Here are five things to look out for as the counts unfold:

1: 'Vote Left Transfer Left'

A United Left platform helped propel Catherine Connolly to Áras an Uachtaráin and that alliance is to be immediately tested in the contest to fill President Connolly's Dáil seat.

Six of the 17 candidates in Galway West have formalised a "Vote Left, Transfer Left" pact, organised by the grassroots group Tonn na Clé.

However, can they work together again to keep the Connolly seat?

The rivalry between some of the candidates has intensified as the realisation dawns that whomever finishes on top of the group of six will be the only one to challenge for a seat.

Indeed, People Before Profit and the Green Party had a public row early on in the campaign.

The other problem is that the vote could split too many ways - leaving the leading left candidate with too much ground to make up after the first count.

Speaking to local and national political figures in the last few days, nobody can agree as to whom the leading left candidate might be.

The TG4/Irish Times/IPSOS B&A poll put the Labour Party's Helen Ogbu out in front of this group on 12%.

The party feels she has the wind in her sails and has pumped resources into her campaign since the poll.

Sinn Féin strongly believes its candidate Mark Lohan leads the left pack, but many observers, including former Fianna Fáil minister Éamon Ó Cuív, tip Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats to win.

Might these candidates simply cancel each other out? Or has one made a sufficient mark to stand out?

The six left candidates equate to around 36% of the vote here in the last General Election.

Strong transfer discipline might be needed to get a left candidate across the line.

As RTÉ's Western Correspondent Pat McGrath noted, Galway West is being described as "the race between the hare and the tortoise", as a left candidate is likely to need to try reel in a frontrunner in Fine Gael or Independent Ireland.

A protracted count is likely.

But if the tortoise is too far back after the first count, the hare might be halfway down the road to Dáil Éireann.

2: Hutch vote

The 2024 General Election in Dublin Central will be long remembered for how Independent Geard Hutch came within touching distance of claiming a seat.

The man described in the Special Criminal Court as the Head of the Hutch Organised Crime Group was in the frame for the fourth seat for ten counts until he narrowly lost out to the Labour Party's Marie Sherlock by just 781 votes on the final count.

He took a 9.5% share of the first preference vote with 3,098 votes in his first ever electoral outing.

Can he go one better this time?

The recent TG4/Irish Times/IPSOS B&A poll shows Mr Hutch running in third on 14% - indicating his vote has increased even when taking the margin of error into account (+/- 4%)

Those in the constituency say his campaign is visibly more extensive than 2024 while his name was marked on pavements outside a number polling stations yesterday with a power hose.

The Dublin City Returning Officer has informed gardaí about the matter.

The man dubbed "The Monk" struggled for transfers though in 2024 - bar a 57.5% chunk from Independent Malachy Steenson who runs again here.

He also received a third of Mary Lou McDonald’s surplus - which will not be available this time.

This is tougher with just one available seat. The man himself admits it is a tall task but he is running with an eye towards the next General Election.

Overall, Mr Hutch's performance is one to watch.

What might it say should he outpoll the majority of the established parties and indeed, do vastly better than some of them?

One potential scenario could see Mr Hutch's votes deciding the winner between Sinn Féin and The Social Democrats.

Mr Hutch believes his votes might favour Daniel Ennis (SD), although the recent poll indicates they could tilt towards Janice Boylan (SF).

3: Fianna Fáil's performance

A double bye-election defeat in 1979 marked the beginning of the end for Fianna Fáil's last Cork Taoiseach Jack Lynch.

Might the same fate befell Micheál Martin?

Expectations are low within Fianna Fáil for these contests with Dublin Central the party's second worst performing constituency in the last General Election; a point repeated by the Taoiseach at the Fianna Fáil Ard Fheis last weekend.

Galway West was not towards the top of the party's best performing constituencies either (16.8% first preference share).

The recent opinion poll puts John Stephens on just 4% in Dublin Central, although the poll was taken before former taoiseach Bertie Ahern's comments on immigration propelled Mr.Stephens' campaign into the spotlight.

Mr Stephens also published the wrong polling day – Thursday, 22 May - on a small amount of his election literature - although he is not the first one to make that mistake in an Irish election.

There has been growing optimism around Cillian Keane's candidature in Galway West, but he is not expected to be involved come the business end of the count.

Performances below those indicated in the recent opinion polls might trigger those TDs unhappy with Micheál Martin to ask awkward questions yet again.

Although such a scenario seems unlikely - with Martin critic James O'Connor even giving a free pass on this occasion.

"The EU Presidency has effectively commenced and the Taoiseach must complete that work. Any debate or discussion about his position at this point would be deeply corrosive to Ireland's standing within the European Union", said the Cork East TD last night.

"Only Micheál Martin knows when the right time is to move on. Perhaps Charlie McCreevy said it best when he said ‘it's best to go when the audience wants you to sing one more song’," he added.

Fianna Fáil's worst ever bye-election result came in Dublin Bay South in 2021 when Deirdre Conroy polled 4.6%.

4: Impact of fuel protests

Last month's fuel protests and blockade of the country's only oil refinery rocked the Coalition.

The manner in which the protests took off made it an extraordinary week.

But just over a month on, does anyone stand to benefit electorally from those events or could a Government candidate instead spring a suprise win?

Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas was prominent during the protests in Galway, his role illustrated in a newspaper photograph which showed Mr Thomas standing between the protesters and gardaí.

In the weeks afterwards, political parties talked up the former Fianna Fáil councillor as the runaway winner, although local political observers were more cautious noting how Mr Thomas' vote did not travel beyond his Connemara base in the last General Election.

However, the TG4/Irish Times/B&A poll put Mr Thomas on 16% while it is understood an internal Sinn Féin poll has him lower again, on 14%.

He garnered 9.5% in the General Election.

He would likely need somewhere close to double those figures to win here.

It will be interesting to see what he pulls in.

Those polls put Fine Gael's Seán Kyne in the lead on 17/18% - despite Government parties having a poor record in bye-elections with just three wins since 1982.

What would it mean should the Coalition pull off an unlikely win after those fuel protests?

It might be wise not to extrapolate too much from a Kyne victory- as the core Fine Gael vote in this constituency could be enough to see him home with a low turnout and fragmented field of candidates.

However, it would give a fillip to party leader Simon Harris and indeed Mr Kyne's Director of Elections, Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke.

5: Mary Lou McDonald's base

The stakes are higher for Sinn Féin in Dublin Central with it being the home constituency of party leader Mary Lou McDonald.

Sinn Féin's political opponents argue the party should be winning here at a canter given Ms. McDonald's presence.

But Janice Boylan faces a potentially ferocious battle with the Social Democrats Daniel Ennis to win the seat.

Sinn Féin's vote dipped by 12 percentage points here in 2024.

While the recent opinion poll shows Ms Boylan largely holding that vote, she might need to do better to ultimately claim the seat.

Disability right campaigner Gillian Sherrat was perceived as the party's preferred candidate for this bye-election, but she has since rowed in wholeheartedly behind Ms Boylan’s campaign.

Sinn Féin figures remain hopeful - with Ms Boylan doing well in media debates and the party putting in a major shift on the ground in the constituency; perhaps knowing the importance of this contest.

The party has been relentless in recent weeks in calling on the Government to do more to help hard-pressed families with opinion polls showing the importance to voters of addressing the cost of living.

But if Janice Boylan loses, does it bring those leadership questions posed at the Sinn Féin Ard Fheis back into view for Mary Lou McDonald?

If she is to be the next Taoiseach, this is a constituency where the party should be taking two seats.

Afterall, Leo Varadkar is the only Taoiseach in the last 37 years to fail to bring in a running mate in a General Election.

What might it say of the lead opposition party if it draws a blank in both contests after a period of severe turbulence for the Coalition with the fuel blockades?

Government figures are already preparing their criticisms of Sinn Féin in expectation of a Daniel Ennis victory.

Ms McDonald will hope to criticise the Government across the Dáil chamber next week with a new TD at her back.