Fears Middle East war could expand as conflict reignites

What US President Donald Trump predicted would be a four-to-six-week joint military operation with Israel to dismantle the Iranian regime is fast sliding into a six-month stalemate with no immediate end in sight and a growing risk that the conflict could expand.

Renewed strikes between Washington and Tehran have dashed hopes that last weekend's pause in hostilities could hold and that both sides were moving towards a welcome diplomatic solution.

The US and Iran had pressed pause on their attacks to give negotiations a chance, particularly over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But an Iranian attack on US positions in Jordan on Tuesday shattered those efforts, followed by an American military response which was aimed at "diminishing threats posed by Iran and its proxies" to US forces, commercial shipping and neighbouring Gulf states.

The strikes also risked pulling new, reluctant, players deeper into the conflict.

Saudi Arabia acknowledged direct involvement in joint US strikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

A Saudi official said the kingdom was not seeking escalation but invoked its right to self-defence after accusing the militias of carrying out attacks on Saudi oil facilities earlier this week.

The message that Riyadh does not want the conflict to spiral further was reinforced in a leaked Washington meeting between Mr Trump and Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, the brother of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

While Saudi Arabia remained firm but cautious, Egypt is too assessing what it should do next, as President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi warned that the war in the Middle East risked serious expansion and that Egypt could be drawn in.

Hours after the US and Saudi strikes, an unidentified drone caused an explosion at an Egyptian port near the Suez Canal. Two ships caught fire on Wednesday at the Port of Damietta including a US-owned gas storage tanker.

The United States suggested Iran was responsible, although Egypt has not said who is to blame.

The incident is a reminder that another vital artery for global shipping and energy supplies could be vulnerable as the conflict widens, particularly with the Houthis continuing to threaten traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea.

Around 50 ships pass through the Suez Canal each day, with roughly 10% of global seaborne trade moving through the waterway, which connects the Mediterranean and Red Seas and provides the shortest maritime route between Europe and the Indian Ocean.

The world got a taste of what disruption there could mean in 2021, when the Ever Given container ship ran aground sideways across the canal, bringing traffic to a standstill and disrupting global shipping for days.

The drone attack this week did not disrupt traffic but was a warning signal of what could come, regardless of who was responsible.

A memorial service for US Senator Lindsey Graham, known for his hawkish foreign policy views and fierce defence of Israel and Ukraine, became a moment for those in charge to consider what comes next.

World leaders who were in town for the funeral used their time in Washington to hold high-level diplomatic meetings amid the stalemate.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Mr Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday and according to POLITICO, the two leaders considered three options for the future of the Iran war: reaching a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme; pursuing only economic pressure through sanctions; and a continuing blockade, or stepping up military action.

Comments Mr Trump gave to Fox News ahead of Mr Graham’s funeral may reflect where the president's thinking is amid declining support and increasing costs.

Mr Trump said that Lindsey Graham was a guy who liked war, after a viral clip from February showed the senator celebrating US strikes on Iran, but said that he also had become more open to "making a deal in this case than just destroying the rest of the country".

The strategy for a deal isn’t entirely clear after the collapse of a Memorandum of Understanding signed a few weeks ago. Whether it’s a revival of the MOU or a fresh start, the path to peace is unpredictable and uncertain.

As CNN’s Stephen Collinson wrote this week, despite Mr Trump’s f-bomb warning that Iran is due another "beating", he has yet to show that he can blast Tehran back to talks.

The Iran conflict has gone beyond a sense of déjà vu.

What began with tit-for-tat strikes and scrambles for peace talks is now slipping into a wider conflict, drawing in new countries, with no public sign of diplomatic progress and growing questions over whether this is a war that can still be brought to an end anytime soon.