CCAC projects rise in industrial greenhouse gas emissions

Ireland's industrial greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise again in the coming years, with industry and waste now expected to be the second worst-performing sector after transport at meeting its climate targets, according to the Climate Change Advisory Council.

The council has warned that the measures currently planned by the Government are not sufficient to deliver the emissions reductions required by 2030.

In its latest annual review of the industry and waste sector, it said industrial emissions have fallen for four consecutive years and are now almost 16% below their 2018 levels.

However, it warned that this progress is expected to stall, with emissions projected to rise again towards the end of the decade.

By 2030, industrial emissions are projected to be just 11.6% below their 2018 levels.

This would be substantially short of the Government's target of a 35% reduction.

The council said it is particularly concerning that the Environmental Protection Agency's projections show almost no difference between the cut in industrial emissions expected from existing climate measures and the cut expected after additional measures listed in the Climate Action Plan are implemented.

It said this demonstrates the absence of clear additional Government policies capable of delivering the emissions reductions required.

Industry has already provisionally exceeded its permitted emissions ceiling for the first five-year carbon budget period, 2021 to 2025, by 2.7 million tonnes of greenhouse gases, or 9.1%.

Industrial emissions fell by 3.3% last year to six million tonnes of CO2 equivalent and currently accounts for 11.4% of Ireland's total national emissions.

Jillian Mahon, a member of the Climate Change Advisory Council, said a continuation of the progress made by industry in recent years cannot be taken for granted.

"The projections are a clear warning that the measures currently planned are not enough to deliver the change needed by the end of this decade," she said.

Ms Mahon said the Government needed to remove the barriers slowing the transition away from fossil fuels, including difficulties electrifying industrial processes, inadequate supports for biomethane production and lengthy delays in approving lower-carbon technologies.

The council is particularly critical of the slow progress being made in developing an indigenous biomethane industry to replace fossil fuels used in industrial heating and manufacturing processes.

The Government has set a target of producing 5.7 terawatt hours of biomethane annually by 2030.

However, just seven projects, worth a combined €19 million, were approved under the first €40 million Biomethane Capital Grant Scheme.

The EPA has also substantially downgraded its projections for biomethane use across the heat sector by 2030, from 4.3 to just 1.75 terawatt hours.

The council attributed this to the piecemeal implementation of the National Biomethane Strategy and the absence of a sufficiently attractive economic case for investment in production facilities.

With up to €200 million in further capital supports for the biomethane industry planned between 2026 and 2030, it said lessons must be learned from the shortcomings of the first scheme.

It is calling for the urgent finalisation of the Renewable Heat Obligation, alongside a separate financial support scheme to accelerate domestic biomethane production.

The council also wants the Commission for Regulation of Utilities and ESB Networks to reduce the costs and delays associated with electricity grid connections, which it said are continuing to obstruct efforts by industry to switch away from fossil fuels.

It has also expressed concern about a growing backlog in the approval of low-carbon cement and concrete technologies.

Some proposed solutions have been awaiting decisions from the National Standards Authority of Ireland's Concrete Committee for several years.

The council is calling for these approval processes to be accelerated and for the Government to establish a legal and regulatory framework to facilitate commercial carbon capture, transport and storage, particularly for cement and lime production.

The report is equally critical of Ireland's performance in reducing waste and developing a circular economy.

Ireland generated 16.7 million tonnes of waste in 2024, equivalent to approximately 8.5 kilogrammes per person every day.

The amount of waste generated nationally has increased by more than 20% over the past decade.

The council also highlighted the fact that 37% of Ireland's municipal waste was exported for final treatment, exposing significant shortcomings in the country's ability to manage its own waste.

Despite modest improvements, the municipal waste recycling rate stands at just 43%, significantly below the EU recycling target of 55%.

Of particular concern is Ireland's circularity rate, which measures the proportion of materials used in the economy that come from recycled sources.

This declined to just 2% in 2024, compared with an EU average of 12.2%.

Ireland now has the second-lowest circularity rate of any EU member state.

Ms Mahon said there was enormous untapped potential in developing a circular economy.

"Ireland cannot be satisfied with having the second-lowest circularity rate in the EU," she said.

She added reducing waste and making better use of existing materials and resources could cut emissions, reduce reliance on raw materials and help build a more resilient economy.

The report also recommends greater investment in the development and use of Irish timber in construction, including the establishment of a permanent wood innovation facility.