Latino vote key to Miami elections amid Republican shift

Miami-Dade is a county with plenty of Latin flavour, with Little Havana hosting cigar shops and places to stop for a potent cafecito or café con leche.

Hispanic or Latino residents make up 70.6% of Miami-Dade County's population.

Many have roots in Venezuela, Cuba and Colombia.

It is also a county that is grabbing the world's attention as voters deliver their verdict on the Republican Party this November.

That's because Miami-Dade has shifted dramatically towards the GOP over the past decade.

Hillary Clinton won here by 30 points in 2016 but Donald Trump carried the county by around 11 points in 2024.

So is this political shift holding up?

"I'm still trying to see who the candidates are. We are in a city of a melting pot. There's a lot of different cultures and ethnicities, and I believe everybody needs to be protected," said one man in Little Havana.

Another young man I met said he used to lean more towards the Republican Party, but nowadays he's not too sure.

What pushed him away?

"Definitely the presidency, this war that's going on, all these things that I don't agree with. You know, I'm just trying to stay in my lane and just keep pushing forward," he said.

Carols, meanwhile, said he would rather have the status quo.

"I voted for Trump because I was fed up with the whole immigration issue, they let people in that were not vetted and the whole country was just a mess," he said.

Donald Trump won 46% of the Latino vote in 2024, surpassing Ronald Reagan and George W Bush to secure the largest share of the national Latino vote for a Republican presidential candidate in modern times.

However, the Trump administration's policies have had a direct impact on communities in Miami-Dade.

Temporary protected status, which allowed some Venezuelans to live and work in the United States, has been revoked, leaving some in legal limbo.

A planned three-night Oktoberfest in Doral was cancelled amid what organisers described as fears for the community, as concerns over immigration enforcement continue.

Republicans are even willing to break with the president on the issue.

"Mr President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far. The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed," said María Elvira Salazar, the Republican US representative for Florida's 27th congressional district, in a campaign ad.

"It's not just a large population - it's a majority Latino county," said Gregory Koger, a professor of political science at the University of Miami.

"In south Florida, in particular, a real challenge that the Democratic Party faces is that a lot of the voters who are Spanish-speaking, like Spanish first, they listen to Spanish radio, and that is heavily skewed towards like Republican or conservative messaging," he said.

"So even people who are deeply affected personally by the Trump policies and ... don't want any more of those policies, they're not necessarily turning to the other main alternative in American politics, the Democratic Party, because they have heard so much negative communications about the Democratic Party brand," Professor Koger added.

Democrats are also grappling with their own divisions.

So-called Democratic Socialists have become an increasingly prominent force within the party, with candidates securing nominations in races across the country ahead of the midterms.

One is Florida Senate hopeful Angie Nixon, who is trailing Republican incumbent Ashley Moody in the polls.

The Democratic Socialist label has not gone down well with everyone.

"I myself am the proud son of a Bay of Pigs veteran who fought against communism and socialism in the 1960s in Cuba.

"So seeing that that kind of ideology try to trickle into Florida gets our voters very, very enthusiastic to vote and vote against that," said Oscar Dominguez from Latinos United for Conservative Action.

"When it comes to immigration, we believe in strong borders.

"As long as you're doing it the right way and legally, such as my parents and many of the people that I work with, we're okay with immigration.

"We're not anti-immigration in any sense of the word. If you even look at just outside of the United States, Latin America recently has had a larger push to the right.

"Look at the elections in Brazil that are occurring now. What happened in Argentina, Colombia?

"We're seeing the same trends here in south Florida and in the United States," Mr Dominguez said.

Dr Ariana Hernandez Reguant, political anthropologist in Miami, pushed back on that.

"[It's] social democracy. They are not socialists ... the narrative needs to be changed.

"This would not work in Europe with the social democrats in Germany or in Spain.

"Accusing them of basically being on the road to communism. That's ridiculous," she said.

Despite being on the defensive, Republicans believe they can go further, flipping traditionally blue areas in local races.

One candidate hoping to do just that is Mery Lopez-Palma, the Republican candidate for Florida's House of Representatives in District 102.

House Speaker Mike Johnson is due to campaign with her at her bakery on Friday.

Asked whether she was finding it difficult to campaign as a Republican while voters worry about the cost of living and gas prices, she said: "Yes and no."

"The Democrats have harmed themselves so much by going so far left that people are afraid that they are bringing socialism and communism into this amazing country, and this country has always been founded on the principles of God.

"And yes, there are some issues, but inflation has always gone up and down," she said.

Professor Gregory Koger believes many voters are turning against the Republican Party in this election cycle, but warns that does not necessarily mean a blue wave is coming.

"[People are] turning against the Trump administration and its policies. I don't know that that turn is going to be enough to flip the state at the statewide level or to have a long-term impact on voters' loyalties," he said.