Cabinet likely to discuss risk assessment, citizenship

A new national risk assessment and an overhaul of the existing citizenship application system are among matters likely to be discussed at a meeting of the Cabinet.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin will tell the Cabinet that threats posed to Ireland by a series of new short, medium and long-term dangers means a new national risk assessment should be carried out by the end of the year.

The Taoiseach will outline the situation as part of a planned updating of the assessment, with global security, climate change and cyber attacks among the issues of most concern.

The review and updating of the existing risk assessment comes amid recent EU claims that Russia was behind last month's drone attacks at Leipzig airport in Germany, deadly heatwaves and wildfires across Europe, warnings over the changing climate, economic conflict in the Middle East directly affecting Ireland and other countries, an unpredictable global economy, and growing cyber security and AI threats.

First published in 2014, the State's National Strategic Risk Assessment document is designed to highlight significant risks to psoed Ireland and its population by the changing world.

Previous issues highlighted included economic concerns such as Brexit and trade disputes alongside concerns such as the Covid-19 pandemic and global security concerns, including conflict between Russia and the EU.

The latest version of the report, from 2024, highlighted risks including armed conflict, terrorism and hybrid security threats.

It said they are compounded by a low-level of investment in military and defence - a situation of ongoing and at times divisive debate.

The Cabinet discussion on the risk assessment comes after Ireland's National Competitive and Productivity Council recommended updating the document in July.

Among the steps likely to follow the Cabinet meeting will be a public consultation on what risks are facing the country, an invitation for Dáil and Seanad-represented political parties to make submissions, and for an inter-departmental Government group to oversee an updating of the report.

On completion of the consultation, a finalised National Strategic Risk Assessment 2026 will be prepared for consideration of the Government prior to publication before the end of the year.

Citizenship application system

Among other issues expected to be raised at the Cabinet meeting is the Government's plans to overhaul the existing citizenship application system.

At Fianna Fáil's pre-Dáil think-in in Co Offaly on Monday, Minister for Justice Jim O'Callaghan confirmed the coalition is planning to increase the number of years someone must be resident in Ireland from five to eight in order to apply to become a citizen.

He also said the application process is in future likely to include a test on someone's proficiency to speak Irish, moves which have led to significant public debate in recent days.

It is understood Government leaders, including the Taoiseach, Tánaiste Simon Harris and Independent Minister of State Seán Canney held discussions yesterday evening over whether to delay the plans going to the Cabinet this week in order to first send them to a cabinet sub-committee for further discussion.

However, by late yesterday evening it remained likely the memo would be brought to the Cabinet meeting today.

Memo to seek improvement of severe weather alert

Meanwhile, Minister for Housing and Local Government James Browne will outline new plans for a clearer flood and severe weather event alert to be introduced in response to the coalition's criticism of warnings for local areas during Storm Chandra earlier this year.

It is understood the Fianna Fáil TD will bring forward a memo seeking to improve how Met Éireann not only identifies, but also communicates potential flooding - including the €50 million or more cost of the severe weather in January and February, which affected hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses across Ireland.

Government sources argue this information needs to be "amplified" in areas where river or coastal floods may take place, so that businesses and families can adapt in time to save their livelihoods and their homes.

However, Met Éireann has previously made it clear it provides detailed information on potential floods and provides public warnings when such incidents are at risk of occurring.

This dispute was given significant attention at the start of this year when Minister Browne accused Met Éireann of "guarding information" and that it needed to improve communications, resulting in a meeting between him and the forecaster.

The Cabinet discussion is expected to include consideration of the Office of Public Works publishing new flood maps to better inform emergency planning and to improve the coordinated response to floods by local authorities.

One Government source said the discussion is intended to allow Met Éireann to "maximise and improve how and when to issue flood forecast information", and that the conversation will play a role in developing a "fully operational" National Flood Forecasting and Warning Service.

Cabinet to be told farmers want EU aid to be doubled

Separately, Minister for Agriculture and Fine Gael TD Martin Heydon is expected to tell Cabinet that farming groups want EU financial aid to Ireland in response to the heatwave-induced farming sector crisis to be doubled to at least €30.8 million.

Minister Heydon is likely to say that this is because growth rates have declined across the farming sector on a consistent basis since June as a direct result of the record-breaking hot weather conditions throughout the summer.

As such, he will say that while the European Commission in July announced a €540m fund to help farmers in need, with €15.4m open to Irish farmers, EU rules allow for the funding to be doubled to €30.8m - a move some farming groups want to happen.

While he will tell ministers the impact has varied significantly across the regions, Mr Heydon is expected to say that a Teagasc fodder survey has found that just 11% of farms have surplus growth, only 31% are on target for winter feed, 19% have a farming deficit of 10 - 20% and that 12% have a deficit of more than 20%.

Minister Heydon is also likely to say that while recent significant rainfall has helped grass growth, the vast majority of impacted areas will take at least another week to recover, with supplementary feeding levels predicted to remain at existing levels until the second half of September.

Among a number of other justice memos likely to be discussed by ministers is the likelihood of Ireland signing up to a new EU pact allowing for some people originally from Nigeria, who are living in this country without legal status, to be returned to Nigeria.

The EU pact plan, first reported by the Irish Times on Saturday, will potentially involve Ireland joining a "re-admission" agreement between the EU and Nigeria as part of a plan to prioritise returns to the west African country.

Meanwhile, Minister for Communications and Fine Gael TD Patrick O'Donovan is also expected to tell the Cabinet he will take part in an EU conference on online safety for children and young people at Dublin Castle on Friday and Saturday this week.

The conference, which is part of Ireland's EU Presidency schedule, is likely to discuss the potential need for "privacy preserving" age verification systems, as well as the outcome of a new survey of 27,000 children aged between nine and 17 across EU member states on the issue.