How Republicans can shatter 2026’s midterm narrative

There’s been a rash of doomsaying about the 2026 midterms after the GOP’s pitiful performance in November’s off-year elections and President Donald Trump’s sagging approval ratings — but a new Emerson College poll brings the party a ray of hope.

Turns out the generic Republican is the most powerful brand in American politics.

The survey pitted four political archetypes — moderate Republican, moderate Democrat, MAGA Republican and progressive Democrat — against one another in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups.

The MAGA Republican label performed worst, falling short against both moderate Democrat (47%-38%) and progressive Democrat (43%-42%) brands.

But the moderate Republican designation performed best of all, easily dispatching either a moderate (44%-39%) or a progressive (48%-36%) Democratic opponent.

At first glance, these results seem to have little bearing on the looming congressional elections.

After all, the man in the White House is the very model of a modern MAGA Republican — and the midterms are traditionally a referendum on its occupant.

But dig deeper, and the poll suggests that with the right game plan, the GOP can turn next year’s anticipated Blue Wave into a ripple.

And not by abandoning its banner of bold colors for one of pale pastels, either.

Consider: To voters, the difference between moderate and MAGA Republicans has less to do with policies and more with demeanor and behavior.

Remember, congressional Republicans of all stripes have voted to advance Trump’s agenda via his One Big Beautiful Bill and his political appointees, and the public still prefers the Trump-era GOP’s approach to key issues like border security and public safety.

Another recent survey from Quinnipiac University found that congressional Democrats’ approval rating has hit an all-time low of 55 percentage points underwater.

And Republicans still hold an advantage on the all-important issue of the economy: The 46% who say the GOP is better equipped to handle it compares favorably to the 41% with more confidence in the Democrats.

Moreover, consider recent test-case elections.

In 2022, the Republican ticket was littered with high-profile figures who reveled in extremes.

There was Doug Mastriano, the Pennsylvania gubernatorial hopeful who was seen waltzing past Capitol Police barriers during the Jan. 6 riot, and Kari Lake, his Arizona counterpart, who spent her campaign antagonizing “McCain Republicans” — then acted surprised when they didn’t turn out for her.

They and others ran as exaggerated, hyper-online versions of Trump — but with less charm and more baggage.

The contrast with 2024’s GOP slate was stark.

That year, Republicans prevailed by running solidly conservative candidates who presented as everyday Americans and focused on the bread-and-butter issues other everyday Americans care about.

Pennsylvania’s Dave McCormick, Montana’s Tim Sheehy and New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte all won competitive races following this roadmap.

These weren’t lily-livered RINOs; they articulated popular conservative policies that win elections — instead of descending down the rabbit holes that offend persuadable voters.

Lesson learned: Running as many “normie” Republicans as possible can keep the party from surrendering winnable races.

By contrast, progressive Democrats are defined by their wacky ideas — and are increasingly ascendant within their party.

Just look at Zohran Mamdani and the small army of far-left primary challengers his success has inspired.

Democrats in 2026 may very well put forth their own slate of big-mouthed extremists that are just as off-putting as Republicans’ 2022 cast of characters.

And don’t forget one more crucial ingredient that helped down-ballot Republicans prosper in 2024: Trump’s presence at the top of the ticket.

Regardless of his approval rating at any given moment, he’s still a massive draw for millions of Americans who feel a unique connection to the president that compels them to show up on Election Day for him.

Not to mention, an Insider Advantage survey this week suggests his overall approval may be rebounding.

Trump’s involvement is a critical part of any successful GOP strategy — but it has to be the right kind of involvement.

If the president demands that every Republican running for everything from dog-catcher to US senator must run a three-legged race with him, he’ll condemn his party to a defeat that would haunt the remainder of his own term in office

At the same time, he must start working now to motivate his loyal base to show up in 2026: His hands-off approach this year depressed GOP turnout and led to disappointing defeats in New Jersey and Virginia.

In other words, Trump will need to commit to campaigning over the next 11 months — without making the campaign about himself.

The winds might be blowing against the GOP ship, but past experience and data combine to provide a clear recipe for a narrative-shattering November next year.

The only question is whether the candidates, and the president, will follow it.

Isaac Schorr is a senior editor at Mediaite.