One normally quiet Texas race shows 2026 will be a ‘wipe out’ for Republicans, Dem stategist claims

· New York Post

A Democratic strategist is predicting a Republican “wipeout” in the 2026 midterms — and pointing to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s surprisingly tight Texas reelection race as proof.

Veteran Democratic strategist Paul Begala said Sunday that Abbott’s numbers against Democrat Gina Hinojosa could signal a much broader Democratic surge in November. 

“This is not going to be a win,” the architect of Bill Clinton’s 1992 win said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“And it’s not going to be a wave. It’s going to be a wipeout.”

The Texas contest has tightened considerably — with the Republican stalwart’s polls falling from a 7-point lead to just 1.8 point in the RealClearPolitics average.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks about his affordability initiatives during his Wichita Falls Affordability Stop at Cattleman’s Trailer and Ag Supply LLC in Wichita Falls, Texas, on Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Abbott, who is seeking an unprecedented fourth term, is still the odd-on favorite to win, but he clinched reelection in 2022 by nearly 11 percentage points.

Republican strategist Ashley Davis pushed back on Begala’s predictions, arguing that a Democratic Senate takeover is not inevitable, and that the Republicans are unlikely to suffer the kind of historic House collapse Democrats experienced in 2010.

“Is this an election against Trump? Yes.” Davis said. “Do I think we’re going to lose the Senate right now? Probably not.”

Additionally, the Dem party is much less popular now than it was during previous wave elections. In 2018, the generic Democrat v. Republican polling had Dems up by 12 points. Now, it’s just 5 points.

Still, Abbott’s race against state Rep. Hinojosa is drawing national attention — and Abbot is no ordinary incumbent.

Attendees cheer as Texas Governor Greg Abbott speaks on the second day of the Midterm Republican National Convention (RNC) in the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, Sept. 10, 2026. The two-day event, conceived by US President Donald Trump to spotlight key midterm congressional races, runs Sept. 9 to Sept. 10. JEFF MCWHORTER/EPA/Shutterstock

The 68-year-old Republican has been Texas governor since 2015. Before becoming governor, he served as the Texas attorney general and on the Texas Supreme Court.

A fourth full term would eventually make him the longest-serving governor in Texas history. 

His campaign reported more than $67 million in cash on hand as of June 30 and said it raised more than $28 million during the first half of 2026. Other campaign-finance puts his war chest above $100 million in later filings. 

However, his job approval rating has plummeted 3% over the past four years, according to the Texas Politics Project — giving Hinojosa plenty of room to attack.

Paul Begala speaks about Democrats in the midterm elections on “The State of the Union.” CNN State of the Union

Hinojosa, a 52-year-old lawyer from Austin, has sought to make the race about the cost of living, public schools, energy and the influence of large corporations. She’s argued that Texans are ready for a change after more than a decade of Abbott’s leadership.

Begala argued that Abbott’s position below 50% in some polls is particularly ominous for an incumbent.

“When strategists read polls, they say where’s the incumbent?” Begala said. “And if the incumbent’s below 50, he’s in big trouble.” 

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott arrives to speak during the second day of the Republican National Committee midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Sept. 10, 2026. Republicans are betting that putting President Donald Trump at the center of their campaign can rescue a party facing grim election forecasts, despite the president’s negative approval ratings. AFP via Getty Images

Begala also credited Hinojosa and fellow Dem state Rep. James Talarico — who is running in the much higher profile Senate race — with energizing voters who have become disillusioned with President Trump.

“We have a very vulnerable country, and Gina is, I think, running a great campaign along with James Talarico in energizing all these voters who have been so turned off by Trump,” he added.