Bitcoin (BTC) To $100k: Will Election Day Spark Bitcoin's Next Big Move? - Blockonomi
by Oliver Dale · BlockonomiTLDR:
- Standard Chartered analyst predicts Bitcoin could reach $125K if Republicans win Congress
- BTC expected to hit $73K by Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)
- Trump victory could trigger 4% immediate rise + 10% in following days
- Harris presidency scenario still bullish at $75K year-end prediction
- Multiple analysts including Bitwise and Deribit also predict significant BTC growth with Trump win
Standard Chartered Bank has released new research linking Bitcoin’s price trajectory to the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with analyst Geoff Kendrick forecasting potential prices up to $125,000 by year-end under specific political conditions.
The analysis centers on the November 5 elections, with Kendrick projecting Bitcoin to reach approximately $73,000 by Election Day. This target sits just below Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $73,800, recorded in March 2024.
According to Kendrick’s research, a Republican victory in Congress could serve as a catalyst for substantial price movement in the cryptocurrency market. The analysis suggests an immediate 4% price increase following a Trump victory announcement, followed by an additional 10% rise in the subsequent days.
Current polling data from RealClearPolitics indicates Trump holds a 59% probability of winning the presidency. This figure aligns with data from Polymarket, which places Trump’s chances even higher at 75%. However, recent reports have revealed that a single whale investor may have influenced Polymarket’s predictions by placing more than $20 million in bets on a Trump victory.
The research also examines scenarios under a potential Harris presidency. While the immediate market reaction might be less enthusiastic, Kendrick’s analysis still projects Bitcoin reaching approximately $75,000 by the end of 2024 under this outcome.
The cryptocurrency community’s perception appears to favor Trump’s stance on digital assets. However, notable exceptions exist within the industry. Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen has demonstrated support for the Harris campaign through an $11 million donation in XRP.
Other market participants have shared similarly optimistic predictions. Executives at crypto asset manager Bitwise have projected Bitcoin could reach $92,000 following a Trump victory. Cryptocurrency exchange Deribit has provided a more conservative estimate, suggesting $80,000 by the end of November under the same scenario.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has taken a more neutral stance, suggesting Bitcoin’s upward trajectory will continue regardless of the election outcome. This perspective acknowledges the cryptocurrency’s growing mainstream adoption and institutional interest beyond political factors.
The analysis considers various market indicators, including options data and betting market probabilities, to form these predictions. These metrics help create a comprehensive view of market sentiment and potential price movements around the election period.
Historical data suggests cryptocurrency markets often respond to major political events, though the extent of influence can vary. The 2024 election’s impact on Bitcoin prices will likely depend on multiple factors beyond just the election results.
The report notes that regulatory clarity remains a key factor for cryptocurrency markets. Different administrative approaches to digital asset regulation could influence market sentiment and institutional participation.
Trading volumes and market liquidity are expected to increase as the election approaches. This activity could lead to higher price volatility in the days surrounding the election results.
The analysis acknowledges that global economic factors, including inflation rates and monetary policy, will continue to play crucial roles in Bitcoin’s price movement alongside political developments.
Recent trading patterns indicate increased market sensitivity to political news and polls, suggesting that election-related developments could trigger notable price movements in either direction.
The research tracks various technical indicators and market metrics to support these predictions, including trading volumes, futures markets, and institutional flow data.