Risk of more Mideast war boosts oil, threatens your wallet

· The Fresno Bee

Something will happen after the Nov. 3 election. And it may cost drivers more at the gas pump.

Commodity traders are taking seriously President Trump’s threat to resume bombing Iran to try to force the country to seriously negotiate an end to the war that is about to end its eighth month.

Indeed, the United States has warned nations in the Persian Gulf region to prepare for a short, intense military campaign, The Wall Street Journal reported. But Vice President J.D. Vance “is engaging one of Iran’s most powerful hardliners to work to get Iran to restart peace negotiations.”

Crude oil is not giving up its gains

Crude oil prices moved higher on Oct. 28, six days before Election Day in the United States. Light sweet crude for December delivery rose nearly 3% to $102.78 per 42-gallon barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 1.3% to $115.32 a barrel.

Light sweet crude is up 79% in 2026; Brent is up 89%.

But retail gasoline fell in the United States.

AAA Fuel Prices put the U.S. national average at $4.247 a gallon, down 0.5% on the day. GasBuddy.com put the U.S. average at $4.229 a gallon, also off 0.5%. Although prices from both organizations are up 50% on the year, they’ve come down about 5% from their recent peaks in September.

The average price of diesel dipped slightly on Oct. 28 to $6.35 a gallon, according to AAA data. That’s down 2.7% from its all-time high of $6.528 a gallon on Sept. 22.

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The war has damaged whole sectors of the economy

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran erupted on Feb. 28 and has disrupted whole portions of the U.S. economy. Higher fuel prices have been a serious problem for motorists, truckers, farmers and ranchers, airlines, and even cruise ship operators.

A small company that offered a 3.5-year cruise to passengers ordered its passengers off a ship in Cambodia. It was shutting down under the weight of fuel costs reaching as much as $8,000 a month.

More oil and economy

Not only are gasoline prices higher, but the war helped push interest rates sharply higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since 2007, and mortgage rates are above 7%, making buying a home difficult for many.

Fed boss called economy strong

Perhaps surprisingly, during his news conference on Oct. 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh described the overall economy as strong.

Consumer spending overall remains healthy, he said, and the jobs picture is solid.

But the Fed and Warsh conceded that “uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments.”

That uncertainty, however, translates into more inflation than the central bank wants. And Wall Street is now expecting an interest-rate increase at the Fed’s next meeting, scheduled for Dec. 9 and 10.

U.S. stocks were largely higher on Oct. 28, despite all the worries about war resuming, not to mention the U.S. election and the aftermath of Israel’s election on Oct. 26.

Eight of 11 Standard & Poor’s 500 sectors were higher. Technology and energy, which have led the U.S. stock market this year, were the day’s leading sectors.

Related: A cruise liner larger than the Titanic is about to be sunk

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This story was originally published October 29, 2026 at 8:47 AM.