If Greg Abbott can lose Texas, no Republican is safe in 2028 | Opinion

Democrats have flipped Texas blue, winning statewide office for the first time in 32 years.

In a stunning upset, Democratic state legislator Gina Hinojosa ousted Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, winning nearly 53% of the vote. Hinojosa’s win is historic: She will be the first Latina governor in Texas. Democrats also swept every other statewide race, unseating Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and ending more than two decades of a Republican trifecta in the Lone Star State.

The governor’s race may be even more shocking than Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico’s win over state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Texas hadn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1990, and unlike in the Senate race, Republicans can’t blame this loss on a terrible candidate.

I was wrong about Abbott’s race. I didn’t think Texas could flip blue this year. The results are a sweeping indictment of Republicans in Texas and nationwide, and particularly of President Donald Trump’s decisions to start a war with Iran and dismiss voters’ concerns about affordability. 

Texas Democrats now need to learn to govern a state with an economy that rivals those of entire nations. 

Republicans, meanwhile, need to figure out what went wrong, and they shouldn’t stop at Trump. I’m not sure every Democratic flip can be blamed on him and the Iran war.

Gov. Greg Abbott served Texas well

It’s hard to believe Abbott lost his bid for a fourth term. He served Texas well, signing property tax cuts, growing the state’s economy and helping secure the border. But he never managed to make significant improvements to Texas public schools, which WalletHub ranked 32nd in the nation.

Though Abbott split with Trump on some issues, he was largely seen as an ally. The president endorsed him in February, then blasted him on Truth Social the night of Nov. 3: “If Greg Abbott, the Governor of Texas, hadn’t become a RINO in the last six months of his Political Life, he wouldn’t have lost.”

These midterm results are a far cry from recent elections. Abbott won each of his three races for governor by double digits. He started this year with more than $100 million in the bank and outspent Hinojosa 6-to-1 from July through late September.

Just two years ago, Trump won 55% of Latino voters in Texas, according to NBC News exit polling. This year, they went for Hinojosa 64% to 35%.

Hinojosa ran on improving public schools – my biggest frustration with Texas and with Abbott’s governance – and embraced populism, which she said “is about economic power.” That’s despite a record as one of the most left-leaning members of the Texas House, where she cochaired the Progressive Caucus.

Texans reject Trump – and statewide Republicans

Voters handed Democrats control of both the U.S. House and Senate, a nationwide repudiation of Trump and Republicans. That the rebuke reached Texas, the most populous red state in the country, is telling.

Affordability remained a top issue for Texas voters. Abbott and Paxton both tried to address it on the campaign trail, but Trump dismissed it as a “hoax.” Unfortunately for Texas Republicans, his message is the one that stuck, and voters responded by rejecting them wholesale.

If a well-funded, three-term incumbent can lose in Texas, no Republican is safe in 2028. By electing Hinojosa, Talarico and a slate of other unexpected Democrats, Texans have decisively rejected the Republican Party. 

Will Democrats govern better than Republicans did? I doubt it, but we’ll find out.

How Texas Democrats became popular enough in just two years to flip the state isn’t much of a mystery. It’s a reversal of the mandate voters handed Trump in 2024, one he squandered.

But Texas Republicans still need to take a hard look at their priorities and their choices. Why did they elevate Ken Paxton, of all people, to take on James Talarico? Republicans must listen to voters’ concerns, take them seriously and figure out how to win back their trust – and quickly. It’s almost impossible for a Republican to win the White House in 2028 without Texas’ 40 Electoral College votes.

Nicole Russell is an opinion columnist with USA TODAY. She lives in Texas with her four kids. Sign up for her newsletter, The Right Track, and get it delivered to your inbox.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: If Greg Abbott can lose Texas, no Republican is safe in 2028 | Opinion

Reporting by Nicole Russell, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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