New 2028 poll shows a tight Democratic primary, clear GOP leader

As buzz around potential 2028 presidential candidates grows, a new poll shows a tight race for the Democratic nomination, while a clear GOP frontrunner is emerging.

In a new poll released this month by YouGov/Bowling Green State University, a vice presidential showdown could be in the cards in 2028 as former Vice President Kamala Harris and current Vice President JD Vance lead their respective primaries.

Both Harris and Vance have now led a series of early 2028 primary polls, with both showing strength among their primary base, but on the Democratic side, a tighter primary could be in the cards.

According to the latest poll, among Democrats, Harris leads slightly with 17% support, followed closely by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 16%. California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also remain close, with both garnering 14% support.

For Republicans, the picture appears clearer as Vance comfortably leads the field with 44% support. His closest challenger, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, came in second with 21%, followed by President Donald Trump's son Donald Trump Jr. with 8%.

The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters from Aug. 25 to Sept. 1, with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, according to YouGov/Bowling Green State University.

What's the latest on the potential candidates?

With speculation mounting, some have expressed their feelings toward a potential run for the White House in 2028.

Most recently, Newsom said in an interview with CNN that he would not run in 2028 if Harris decided that she wants to campaign for the seat a second time. The California governor made the statement during a fishing trip in Montana with CNN's Jake Tapper, after the reporter asked about his presidential ambition if Harris joined the race as well.

"I don't know if she runs, but we'll see," Newsom told Tapper. "I wouldn't run if she ran."

On the Republican side, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas fueled speculation about another White House bid. He finished second to President Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary race.

"It's no secret that I want to be president," Cruz said in August during an appearance on Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick's podcast.

While Cruz signaled his potential to run, Rubio has sought to tamp down speculation, although he did not completely rule out a campaign. Speaking during an official visit to Colombia, he was asked about a possible presidential run and whether he could see himself seeking the White House after Trump's second term ends.

"I don't know what the future holds, but I have no plans at this time," Rubio said. "I'm not a candidate for anything right now. And I'm 100% focused on my job, and I have to be because I have two jobs."

Fernando Cervantes Jr. is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Reach him at fernando.cervantes@usatodayco.com and follow him on X @fern_cerv_.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New 2028 poll shows a tight Democratic primary, clear GOP leader

Reporting by Fernando Cervantes Jr., USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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This story was originally published September 15, 2026 at 10:47 AM.