Analysis: Lebanon walks diplomatic tightrope in bid to end Israel war
by Dalal Saoud · UPIBEIRUT, Lebanon, July 24 (UPI) -- Lebanon is walking a tightrope as it seeks to secure Israel's withdrawal from its occupied southern region and end the nearly three-year war with Hezbollah.
The country has secured a "first diplomatic achievement" buoyed by growing support from U.S. President Donald Trump, yet still risks the collapse of its efforts.
Hezbollah and Iran could derail Lebanon's negotiations and undermine the implementation of the U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached with Israel on June 26 by launching attacks on Israeli forces in southern Lebanon or even targets inside Israel.
Both continue to insist on linking Lebanon's track to Iran's negotiations with the United States, despite those talks being suspended following the renewed confrontation between Washington and Tehran.
Lebanon's ability to rein in Hezbollah without losing U.S. momentum, alongside the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict, remains its main challenge.
Moreover, Gaza presents a stark example of how such conflicts can remain unresolved, with Israel retaining freedom of military action.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, the first Lebanese head of state invited to the White House since 2009, gained additional backing from Trump during their first official meeting in Washington earlier this week.
The support included political backing for Aoun, continued military assistance to the Lebanese Army, the resumption of direct flights to Lebanon by U.S. airlines, increased U.S. investment and support for Lebanon's economic recovery.
Aoun, who served as Lebanon's army commander before being elected president last year, emphasized the urgent need for Israel's complete withdrawal from the occupied parts of southern Lebanon, describing it as an "essential step" toward consolidating Lebanon's sovereignty and stability.
The meeting, held hours after the Lebanese Army began to deploy in the first two pilot zones in southern Lebanon as part of the June 26 agreement, also addressed plans to disarm Hezbollah -- a condition set by Israel in exchange for its complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon.
By deciding to engage in direct talks with Israel as the only viable path to ending the war, despite Hezbollah's staunch opposition, Aoun was betting that Trump alone could pressure Israel to withdraw its troops and help Lebanon restore its sovereignty.
He reportedly has a plan to dismantle Hezbollah's substantial arsenal and place it under state control, but he must persuade Hezbollah, which continues to reject disarmament and the framework agreement with Israel.
Aoun's efforts to end the war through diplomacy, starting with an Israeli withdrawal from the pilot zones and the deployment of the Lebanese Army, have yet to be tested on the ground.
Retired Brigadier Gen. Ziad al-Hashem, a former Lebanese Army deputy chief of staff for planning, hailed the move as a "historic achievement," saying that an Israeli withdrawal achieved through diplomatic efforts would mark a first in the history of the Lebanon-Israel conflict.
"Any inch of land liberated to restore state sovereignty is an achievement," al-Hashem told UPI, referring to the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the village of Zawtar al-Gharbieh, the first village included in the initial pilot zones, located in the central sector of southern Lebanon near the strategic Litani River.
He dismissed critics, including Hezbollah officials, who argued that Zawtar al-Gharbieh was not occupied by Israel, explaining that the village had remained within Israeli firing range and that Israeli forces had repeatedly entered and withdrawn from it for tactical reasons.
Such a first move -- whose implementation will be supervised and verified by specialized U.S. military teams -- will be followed by the creation of additional secure zones, paving the way for the return of displaced residents and reconstruction in their villages. If successful, it would represent a major political gain for Aoun and a validation of his diplomatic approach.
Al-Hashem noted that Aoun met with Trump while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was awaiting a date for his Washington visit, arguing that the timing was an indication of U.S. commitment to the framework agreement and Washington's continued pressure on Israel.
"Bringing more territory under Lebanese sovereignty is very important, while keeping Lebanon linked to the U.S.-Iran track is very dangerous for the country," he said, stressing that Lebanese authorities "should carry out their duties" and fulfill their commitments under the agreement.
Failing to do so -- meaning preventing Hezbollah from returning to the evacuated areas to fire on Israeli forces and ultimately disarming it -- would give Israel a pretext to resume its attacks, destroy more villages and withdraw from the framework accord.
The question remains whether the Lebanese Army has the strength and capacity to restrain Hezbollah, particularly as Israel remains skeptical that southern Lebanon can be placed fully under army control and that Hezbollah will agree to complete disarmament.
Eric Lob, an associate professor of Middle East comparative studies at Florida International University in Miami, said many reasons exist for skepticism over whether diplomacy can succeed in the Lebanon case and whether it can deliver meaningful results.
Lob referred to Gaza's 20-point plan, saying that Israel "is occupying more and more of it by the day" as the humanitarian crisis, military conflict and escalation continue.
"Even if Hezbollah has been degraded, it must be looking at what is going on in Gaza and saying to itself, 'There's just no way we can disarm,'" he told UPI.
Lob said the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is "another factor that disincentivizes Hezbollah from disarming," citing reports that the Iran-backed group has transformed itself since 2023 and "gone back to being more of a guerrilla force."
Hezbollah, however, is facing its own challenges, with mounting internal pressure -- even from within its Shiite community -- to end the war, in addition to the degradation of its military capabilities.
The concern is whether Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has taken control of Hezbollah's decision-making and could order it to fire on Israel again.
In that case, Israeli retaliation would be "catastrophic" for Lebanon, causing more destruction, casualties and the occupation of additional areas, as a Lebanese official recently warned during an interview with UPI.
Lob said Washington is playing a "big role" in restraining Israel, but whether it will continue to do so remains an open question.
"I think that until there's a de-escalation and cessation of hostilities between Iran and the United States, it will be difficult to make progress in Lebanon on the diplomatic front," he said.
Still, the Trump-Aoun meeting represents an opportunity for diplomacy and a new opening for engagement, despite the significant obstacles ahead and the risks that could derail the process.
Al-Hashem maintained that, according to Aoun's plan, containing Hezbollah's weapons could be achieved without confrontation "by simply keeping them in depots and preventing them from being moved from one area to another or used."
Otherwise, he said, the Gaza model is there as a warning with the fear that Lebanon could lose U.S. momentum and interest while Israel continues to occupy a security zone in southern Lebanon.