North Korea nuclear arsenal seen expanding rapidly, report says

April 23 (Asia Today) -- North Korea's nuclear program has moved beyond basic possession into a phase of rapid expansion and operational deployment, according to recent assessments by U.S. and South Korean security analysts.

Studies by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses indicate Pyongyang is accelerating production of nuclear weapons and refining its ability to use them in wartime scenarios.

Estimates suggest North Korea possessed between 127 and 150 nuclear warheads as of 2025, with projections rising to as many as 429 by 2040 if current trends continue.

Researchers say the country's uranium enrichment infrastructure has expanded significantly. Facilities at Yongbyon have been upgraded over the past decade, and newer sites are believed to be capable of housing thousands of centrifuges, enabling large-scale production of highly enriched uranium.

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Analysts warn that North Korea's nuclear doctrine has also shifted.

While earlier policies emphasized deterrence, a 2022 law formalizing nuclear strategy introduced provisions allowing for preemptive nuclear strikes under certain conditions, including threats to leadership or command structures.

Leader Kim Jong Un has called for the "exponential" increase of nuclear weapons production, a directive experts say is now being realized through expanded facilities and stockpiles.

The shift suggests Pyongyang is seeking not only deterrence but also a credible warfighting capability, raising concerns about a more one-sided nuclear threat environment on the Korean Peninsula.

Experts argue that denuclearization strategies must adapt to the new reality.

A report from the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses recommends a phased approach to negotiations, warning that delays only allow North Korea to increase its arsenal and strengthen its bargaining position.

It also calls for stricter controls over nuclear materials, including plutonium and highly enriched uranium, and the introduction of robust verification mechanisms targeting undeclared facilities.

Analysts say the challenge now lies in balancing stronger deterrence with realistic diplomatic efforts, as North Korea's nuclear capabilities continue to grow.

-- Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

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Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260424010007634