ASEAN survey shows tilt toward China over U.S.

April 8 (Asia Today) -- A new survey shows Southeast Asian opinion has shifted toward China over the United States as a preferred strategic partner, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. policy uncertainty.

According to a report cited by the South China Morning Post, 52% of respondents chose China over the United States in a survey conducted by Singapore's ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute. The survey included 2,008 policymakers, academics and business leaders across 11 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Only 48% selected the United States, marking a reversal from last year when 52.3% favored Washington and 47.7% chose Beijing.

Preferences varied across the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore leaned toward China, while the Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam continued to favor the United States, highlighting a regional divide.

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Analysts said the shift reflects not only deepening economic ties with China but also unease over U.S. policies under Donald Trump. The survey was conducted from early January to late February, shortly after the Trump administration announced the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and new controls on oil sales.

Respondents identified U.S. leadership under Trump as their top concern, followed by global fraud and tensions in the South China Sea.

Scott Marciel said U.S. tariff policies and other measures have increased economic uncertainty in the region and eroded trust. Saya Kiba added that a perceived lack of U.S. leadership, dating back to the previous administration, has contributed to rising geopolitical instability.

Some experts cautioned against interpreting the results as a full strategic shift toward China. Ng Chi Keng said the data does not indicate Southeast Asia has "chosen" China, but rather that Beijing is no longer seen as the less favorable option when countries are forced to choose.

He added that ASEAN nations are increasingly diversifying partnerships with countries such as Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and European states to reduce risks rather than aligning exclusively with either Washington or Beijing.

The findings suggest that economic interdependence and geographic proximity are playing a larger role in shaping regional perceptions, making China an unavoidable factor in Southeast Asia's future.

-- Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

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Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260408010002432