ASEAN summit opens under pressure from energy crisis, Myanmar conflict
· UPIMay 7 (Asia Today) -- Energy security, Myanmar's prolonged civil conflict and tensions in the South China Sea emerged as simultaneous tests for Southeast Asian leaders as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit opened Wednesday in the Philippines.
The two-day summit in Cebu comes as the Iran-linked energy crisis and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz intensify concerns across the region, where many countries depend heavily on imported fuel.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and leaders from the bloc's 10 member states are attending the summit and related meetings.
Myanmar remains represented by a senior foreign ministry official rather than top military leaders, extending ASEAN's five-year policy of excluding junta leadership from high-level meetings following the 2021 military coup.
Maria Theresa Lazaro said energy and food security for the region's nearly 700 million people would be the summit's top priorities.
Diplomats and analysts said the worsening energy crisis could effectively dominate discussions despite Manila's insistence that other regional issues would not be sidelined.
"This summit could become, in practice, an energy coordination forum," regional observers said, as ASEAN members seek ways to cushion the economic shock from rising fuel costs and supply disruptions.
The summit is also viewed as a major diplomatic test for the Philippines as ASEAN chair.
Officials are attempting to balance multiple crises simultaneously, including energy supply instability, Myanmar's unresolved conflict and lingering tensions from the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute that erupted last year.
Don McLain Gill said plans to mitigate economic damage from the energy crisis could overshadow progress on other issues.
"Myanmar and the South China Sea will remain on the agenda, but meaningful breakthroughs appear unlikely," he said.
Dominic Xavier Imperial, assistant secretary and ASEAN spokesperson at the Philippine Foreign Ministry, said no issue would be sacrificed despite the mounting energy concerns.
Energy cooperation is widely viewed as the area most likely to produce tangible progress.
ASEAN energy ministers have already held special meetings ahead of the summit, and the Philippines is pushing for ratification of a regional oil-sharing framework agreement.
Laura del Rosario said the scale of the energy supply shock affects every ASEAN member state and could lead to agreements that go beyond symbolic statements.
The energy discussions also reflect broader geopolitical competition between the United States and China in Southeast Asia.
Analysts said Beijing is positioning itself as a more stable regional partner while Washington remains distracted by multiple global conflicts.
Collin Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies said China currently holds significant leverage as a supplier of energy-related parts and raw materials.
"How far ASEAN expands energy cooperation could reveal whether member states are leaning more toward China or the United States," he said.
Myanmar remains the summit's most difficult political issue.
ASEAN has demanded that Myanmar's military government implement a five-point consensus that includes ending violence, starting dialogue among all parties and allowing humanitarian assistance.
The bloc has refused to recognize the legitimacy of Myanmar's April election, which brought coup leader Min Aung Hlaing formally to the presidency.
Myanmar's military-backed government has recently attempted reconciliation gestures, including pardons and sentence reductions for detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
However, ASEAN members remain unconvinced about the junta's willingness to engage in genuine dialogue with opposition groups.
The South China Sea is expected to remain another major source of division.
ASEAN and China have negotiated a code of conduct for the disputed waters since 2002 and aim to complete it by 2026, but member states remain divided and economically dependent on Beijing to varying degrees.
Although China was not invited to the summit, analysts said Beijing continues to exert strong influence over the negotiations.
Some observers believe China is unlikely to accept any agreement that significantly limits activities in waters where it claims broad territorial rights.
-- Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI
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