What happens if Taiwan, Ukraine go under?

· UPI

Dec. 24 (UPI) -- Here is a pre-Xmas bauble to consider for the new year.

Virtually all the debate and controversy over the future sovereignty and integrity of Taiwan and Ukraine have rested on preventing the worst from happening. The worst is that China will absorb Taiwan and Ukraine will fall under the influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But, has the time come when these possibilities must be seriously discussed? Some argue that should both states lose independence, the conditions of 1938 and Czechoslovakia will be recreated -- and they were not Hitler's last move.

Yet, 50 years ago last April 30, North Vietnamese forces marched into Saigon, ending that war. What were the strategic consequences of that defeat for the United States? None.

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Indeed, Vietnam is at least a partial friend today and a possible counterweight to China. Of course, Ukraine is embedded in Eurasia, and its geostrategic significance regarding Europe is greater than the post-Vietnam dominoes that never fell. And how would most of the Asian Pacific region view a Chinese takeover of Taiwan? Probably not favorably.

How such contingencies arise should affect the reactions of the United States and all interested parties.

Suppose a new government in Taipei decides that some form of unification is in Taiwan's best interests and does so peacefully and with some guarantees to prevent the outcome that befell Hong Kong after it was returned by the United Kingdom to China. Similarly, if a peace agreement can be struck that assures Ukrainian independence and Kyiv accepts it, that, too, would make a difference.

Given that these are perhaps less likely scenarios, suppose China and Russia apply their superior advantage and coerce or actually use force to bring the two smaller states to heel. An outright invasion of Taiwan probably exceeds Beijing's military capacity and capability that requires thousands of ships and landing craft and at least 100,000 troops. However, as Russia did with Ukraine, China could amass a large force aimed at Taiwan as a coercion.

Whether through an economic embargo and blockade -- and how would the United States and its allies react?--- or through the threat of literally destroying Taiwan through missile and air attacks, suppose the Taiwan government surrendered. It would become a province of China and under firm Chinese control.

In Ukraine, suppose that attrition finally took its toll and Kyiv had no option other than to accept Moscow's demands. Or suppose Moscow were able to mount a ground assault that captured Kyiv. Either way, Ukraine would have lost its independence and the post-Cold War borders of Europe would be forever changed.

Given an occupation, would the Taiwanese accept that condition.? Or would a guerrilla war be fought using the mountainous terrain as protection from the People's Liberation Army and its forces? Would this be another Afghanistan with the Taiwanese becoming the Taliban? And would the United States attempt to arm the insurgents? Or, more likely, would Taiwan become a repeat of Hong Kong?

If history is relevant, Ukrainians would not easily concede their nation. Resistance during World War II to the Nazis was legendary. Would Russia become enmeshed in an Afghanistan on steroids? Instead of ingesting Ukraine, Russia would find itself having swallowed a country intent on destroying the occupiers from within.

In both Asia and Europe, would local states feel sufficiently threatened and intimidated to take whatever steps were needed to defend against further Russian or Chinese aggression? If the answer were yes, would one obvious possibility be acquiring nuclear weapons? Japan and Australia certainly have the capacity, as do several European states Then what?

Too often, conflict occurs before the "what next?" question is asked and answered. Hitler believed the Wehrmacht would overrun Russia, and thus Britain would seek surrender. The War Lords in Tokyo believed that sinking the U.S. Pacific battle fleet at Pearl Harbor would so shock Americans that surrender was inevitable. And the examples of Afghanistan and Iraq after 2003 are clear over failing to answer the what-next question.

In this crazy world that has been turned upside down by U.S. America First policies and tariff wars and in which adversaries such as Russia are now seen as possible economic partners, is it too fanciful to raise the what-next question over the proposition that Taiwan and Ukraine no longer are independent?

Perhaps by exploring what seem to be these worst cases now, the worst cases can be prevented.

Harlan Ullman is UPI's Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council, chairman of a private company and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book, co-written with Field Marshal The Lord David Richards, former U.K. chief of defense and due out next year, is Who Thinks Best Wins: Preventing Strategic Catastrophe. The writer can be reached on X @harlankullman.