Robert King: An unPresidented result – How Vance or Walz could become the next US President

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could be one of the closest in history, with potential twists involving faithless electors and a possible contingent election. If no candidate secures the needed 270 electoral votes, the House of Representatives may decide the President, while the Senate selects the Vice President. In this scenario, Vice Presidential candidates JD Vance or Tim Walz could even assume acting leadership if deadlock persists.

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By Robert King*

As the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election draws near, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is shaping up to be one of the tightest and most fiercely contested in recent history. With razor-thin margins in key swing states, the potential for an unprecedented outcome is higher than ever. While most voters expect either Harris or Trump to win outright, the complexities of the U.S. electoral system open the door to a far more unconventional scenario—one that could see Vice Presidential candidates JD Vance or Tim Walz assuming the leadership of the Free World.

The presidential election is decided by the Electoral College, where each state’s popular vote determines the electors who ultimately choose the president. According to the RealClearPolitics polling averages at the time of writing, Trump currently holds slim leads in virtually all key battlegrounds, however, Harris still stands a strong chance of winning them all. This creates the real possibility of an election night where neither candidate wins by a comfortable margin.

If Trump wins Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris claims Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, we could see a result as close as 270-268 in favour of Harris. The same could occur in reverse if Trump carries Pennsylvania and a few other swing states, securing the narrowest of victories.

At first glance, such an outcome seems straightforward—whichever candidate reaches 270 electoral votes wins. However, the U.S. electoral system includes a rarely consequential but not uncommon wildcard: the faithless elector.

In 33 states and DC, there are no legal consequences (other than the possibility of a fine) for electors who decide to cast their vote for someone other than the candidate chosen by that state’s voters. Such electors, known as “faithless electors”, can, in theory, disrupt the outcome of a tightly contested election.

Faithless electors are not just theoretical. In the 2016 election, seven electors went rogue with Hillary Clinton losing five electoral votes to faithless electors, while Trump lost two. In an election where the winning margin is just one or two electoral votes, even a single faithless elector could alter the result.

Read more: 🔒 The Economist: Why Donald Trump has moved ahead in our election forecast

The possibility of a faithless elector defecting is heightened by ideological divisions within both parties – notably the Democrats. Earlier this year, the “Uncommitted” movement urged Democratic primary voters to reject Biden over his handling of the Gaza conflict and has refused to endorse Harris in the general election.  Were this movement to resurface in the Electoral College and push an elector sympathetic to their cause to abstain or vote for a third-party candidate instead of Harris, then this could drop her total from 270 to 269, resulting in no candidate having a majority.

If neither candidate reaches the necessary 270 electoral votes, the election is thrown into a contingent election. Under the 12th Amendment, the U.S. House of Representatives is then tasked with selecting the President, while the Senate chooses the Vice President.

In the House, each state delegation votes as a bloc, with each state getting one vote regardless of size. California, with its 52 House members, would have the same say as Wyoming, which has only one representative. The party controlling the most House seats in a state decides that state’s vote. As it stands, Republicans are likely to control a majority of state delegations, but there is no guarantee that the vote would perfectly align with the results of the presidential race.

In heavily gerrymandered states or states with high levels of split-ticket voting, the House delegation might favour a different party than the one that won the presidential vote. In Alaska, for instance, Trump is expected to win the state’s popular vote, but its House seat is currently held by a Democrat in a competitive race. Such dynamics complicate predictions regarding the House vote.

If no candidate wins a majority of the state delegations (26 out of 50), the House could remain deadlocked, with neither Trump nor Harris securing enough support.

The election then moves to the Senate, which must choose the Vice President, and this election will likely fall along party lines. If Republicans win control of the Senate, JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, would likely be elected Vice President. Conversely, if Democrats maintain control, Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, would be elected instead.

Here is where it gets complicated: if the House cannot resolve its deadlock before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025, the elected Vice President assumes the role of Acting President until the House elects a President. This means that either JD Vance or Tim Walz could temporarily become the leader of the United States, until the House of Representatives can determine a President – and considering the frequent deadlock and highly partisan nature of Congress, it is anyone’s guess when that could be.

Ultimately, this is just one of many possible paths to the White House. While rogue electors made headlines in 2016, they were notably absent in 2020 – but these are anything but ordinary times in American politics. In an era where surprises have become the norm, it is hard to rule out even the most unlikely scenarios. As the election draws near, one thing is certain: expect the unexpected.

Read also:

• 🔒 U.S. inconsistency pushes Africa toward Russia and China: Andreas Kluth
• Trump campaign blames Iran for hacking and election interference
• Shapiro: Global financial markets wary of political shifts as U.S. elections approach

*Robert King is a student in politics, philosophy, and economics and co-founder of the Referendum Party.

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