Mandate of 2026 polls: A stronger right, a new south

Historic upsets. Disconcerting and unexpected winners. That’s the 2026 Assembly election results in four states and a Union Territory in a nutshell.

Monday, May 4, results mark such a seismic shift in the political landscape of India that the polls in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry are one for the history books. Its ripple effects are likely to change how political parties and voters alike view state-level elections.

India’s political map now shows a clear division, with the saffron party dominating the northern and eastern belts, while the Congress has been relegated to a party of southern India.

On Monday, Bengal, which had long been a Communist Party of India and Trinamool Congress stronghold, turned into the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) pride with a stupendous debut, while it also successfully retained its stronghold in the northeastern state of Assam, where Himanta Biswa Sarma is set to become Chief Minister for the second consecutive term.

The Communist Party of India, which once held an iron grip in Bengal and Kerala, has been eclipsed. It lost in both states, marking its formal exit from Indian mainstream politics.

The biggest upset came from Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee’s shocking loss to arch-rival and BJP candidate Suvendu Adhikari. As is the case with another Chief Minister, Tamil Nadu’s MK Stalin, who lost in Kollathur, his stronghold since 1984.

Actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) made the most impressive debut in Tamil Nadu, proving all exit poll predictions wrong

Bengal’s tigress loses territory

The script that once defined her politics–defiance, comeback, control–has been upended with ruthless symmetry. Mamata Banerjee, the streetfighter who rose from the margins to redraw West Bengal’s political map, has lost not just the state she ruled for 15 years, but also Bhabanipur–her political refuge, her backyard, her last fortress.

For the Trinamool Congress supremo, who fused party, government and narrative into a single axis, the poll verdict is not merely electoral, it is existential.

The BJP has stormed to power with a two-thirds majority, ending the TMC’s uninterrupted 15-year rule. But the political punctuation mark lies elsewhere. In Banerjee’s home turf Bhabanipur, where Suvendu Adhikari defeated her by over 15,000 votes, replaying the ghost of Nandigram with chilling precision.

This is not defeat; this is rupture. For over a decade and a half, Banerjee was Bengal’s unchallenged centre of gravity–the leader who dismantled the 34-year Left Front regime in 2011 and replaced it with a political order stamped in her image.

The signs were visible, but rarely decisive. Recruitment scams, corruption allegations, administrative fatigue, and a sharpening opposition narrative had begun to chip away at the sheen of a government once seen as electorally invincible. Yet, Banerjee had repeatedly turned adversity into advantage—from Singur to Nandigram, from street protests to sweeping mandates.

This time, the burden proved heavier than the instinct.

The fall of the red fortress

At the national level, the Left once occupied a far more influential position. In the years following Independence, the Communist Party of India (CPI) emerged as the largest opposition party in Parliament. Through the 1990s and 2000s, Left parties remained a significant parliamentary bloc in Lok Sabha, often playing a key role in coalition politics.

The decline of Left also coincided with structural changes in the economy and polity. Observers say the loss in Kerala would further accentuate this decline by removing the Left’s last platform of state governance. State power has traditionally provided organisational support, visibility and a base for cadre mobilisation, which in turn fed into national influence.

CPI(M) General Secretary MA Baby described the latest round of Assembly election results as a “serious setback” for the Left, particularly in Kerala. On West Bengal, he said, “Even in such a polarised situation, the Left has marginally improved its performance. In over 30 constituencies, our position has improved, though we expected a far better outcome.”

Vijay the giant slayer

Actor-politician Vijay and his TVK have many firsts to their credit and the the party founder will be the first person from a minority religion -Christianity- to helm the state.

The party created a record of sorts in the electoral history of Tamil Nadu and emerged as the single largest party by delivering a shock defeat to incumbent DMK and its president, Chief Minister MK Stalin in his Kolathur constituency, while the AIADMK was pushed to a distant third spot.

This was the first time since 1967, when the first non-Congress government (DMK) came to power in the state, that a party other than the two Dravidian heavyweights emerged victorious in the hustings.

As soon as it became clear that TVK was inching towards an unprecedented, huge win in its debut polls, party workers and supporters gathered in front of party office at Panaiyur here and burst firecrackers and distributed sweets.

While Vijay won from both Perambur and Tiruchirappalli East constituencies, his party has netted 89 seats and was leading in 18 more and is on course to become the single largest party in the 234-member House.

Perhaps the biggest shock was CM Stalin being defeated by a margin of 8,795 votes in his Kolathur constituency by little known VS Babu, who was formerly with the DMK and an ex-MLA.

While the DMK has won 48 seats and is leading in 12 constituencies (24.20 per cent voteshare), AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami won by a record margin of 98,110 votes in his home segment of Edapadi in Salem district. The AIADMK has won 41 seats and is leading in six segments (21.25 per cent voteshare).

This will the first time in Tamil Nadu that a party will assume power a little over two years after its founding. TVK has clocked nearly 35 per cent (34.92) vote share in its debut polls.

The TVK was launched in February 2024.

Congress restricted to southern party

Congress is currently governing Telangana and Karnataka. In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) won 102 seats while the LDF won in 35 out of the 140 constituencies. In northern India, it controls only Himachal Pradesh.