NCP merger remains elusive as party leaders navigate hurdles

If the NCP (Ajit Pawar) decides to go with Sharad Pawar's secular or anti-communal platform, it has to leave Maharashtra's BJP-led three-party alliance.

If the breakaway Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), led by the late Ajit Pawar’s wife and the other by its founder, Sharad Pawar, unites, one of them has to change its ideology. If the NCP (Ajit Pawar) decides to go with Sharad Pawar’s secular or anti-communal platform, it has to leave Maharashtra’s BJP-led three-party alliance.

But that would not lead to the government’s collapse; the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, with its 132 BJP MLAs and 57 from Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, would continue with their strength way ahead of the 145, which is the majority mark.

It is in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s interest if the NCP (AP) stays within the alliance because the NDA in Parliament requires numbers for their ambitious bills, like delimitation and the linked women’s quota, to be enacted into law. The very frequently operationalised approach of splitting the rivals is mainly because the government wants to shore up their numbers.

NCP (Ajit Pawar) has one member in the Lok Sabha and four in the Rajya Sabha. Sunil Tatakare in the Lok Sabha, is the state unit chief, and Praful Patel is the national working president, and Ajit Pawar’s son Parth and two more.

The BJP would only be delighted if Sharad Pawar’s NCP decides to ditch the INDIA bloc and make a common cause with the NDA once the two factions merge, as it is speculated that they would. That, should the merger transpire, would be a major, opposed ideological shift for Sharad Pawar, a long-time adherent to secularism and advocate of politics of inclusiveness. He has been resolute so far. This shift is the BJP’s pivotal requirement. If Pawar does shift his ideology at this stage in his life, he ends it on a wrong note.

Sharad Pawar may not mind BJP alliance

Sharad Pawar’s party, founded in 1999, has eight members in the Lok Sabha, a number that the BJP would salivate to have on its side. The party has just one member in the Rajya Sabha, and that is Mr Pawar himself. His list of MLAs in Maharashtra has 10 of them, while Ajit Pawar’s faction boasts of 41 seats. The Mayayuti in Maharashtra can do with the loss of the alliance part despite the big number, as already pointed out, but the eight that can add to the NDA’s total would be a treasure for it.

It is touted by speculative analysts that Pawar would not mind an alliance with the BJP because, given his advanced age of 85 and indifferent health despite having conquered cancer in the past, he would want his dynasty to be settled into strong political offices. I would like to stick my neck out and say that this is unlikely given his strong secular credentials. Being cordial with rival political leaders does not mean accepting their ideologies. The Pawars had been visitors to the Thackeray home but were political rivals of Bal Thackeray.

However, the breakaway faction, which lacks strong leadership after Ajit Pawar’s demise, needs one; without it, it is floundering, and the idea of a collective leadership has not found much traction. In fact, groupism is much in evidence; accusations are flying thick and fast that Sunetra Pawar listens to her son Parth, who was very quickly elevated to the Rajya Sabha after the demise of the father. He is the national general secretary. It appears it is Sunetra Plus Parth versus the rest in the party.

Tricky issues to tackle

If the merger does take place, it is going to be a convoluted process because quite some tricky issues have to be tackled first. Which party, for instance, would merge with which? In all probability, the party that abandons its ideology would be merging with the other. But would NCP be willing to give up the power share in the alliance with as many as 10 ministers – a fourth of its legislative party strength – in the Maharashtra cabinet? The breakaway NCP continues to be distraught over not getting the key portfolio of Finance after Sunetra Pawar was inducted as a deputy chief minister.

It has been craving for that portfolio which Ajit Pawar had wrangled because it is a powerful instrument in the direction a government takes. It is believed – though denied by Delhi – that the leaders had gone to meet Amit Shah to intervene and get that back for the NCP (AP) – and possibly they were instead asked to engage in a merger process and get the elder Mr Pawar, easily the tallest Maharashtra leader and most experienced on board. But he will play his cards in an unexpected manner and surprise the best of fortune foretellers.