'Trump’s hawkish thinking aligned with Netanyahu’s' - NYT

Top Trump aides told him PM’s prewar regime change forecast was ‘farcical’ — report

NYT reveals PM’s high stakes Situation Room pitch to Trump included series of predictions — such as Tehran being too weak to close Hormuz or attack neighbors — that haven’t panned out

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a high-stakes pitch this February in the White House Situation Room for the US to launch a war against Iran together with Israel, selling US President Donald Trump on a range of predictions regarding how swiftly the joint operation would go that have largely not panned out, according to an extended report in The New York Times on Tuesday.

The report, which detailed how Trump arrived at his decision to go to war on February 28, said Netanyahu told Trump that Iran’s ballistic missile program could be destroyed in a few weeks; Tehran would be so weakened by US-Israeli attacks that it would be unable to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz; it would likely be unable to strike US assets in neighboring countries; and the regime was ripe for collapse, thanks to help from Kurdish fighters capable of invading the country from Iraq.

While Trump’s CIA chief and secretary of state would later characterize Netanyahu’s regime change prediction as “farcical” and “bullshit,” the president and many of his advisers were sold on the ideas that Iran’s leadership could be taken out and that its military arsenal could be destroyed, according to the report, which cited extensive interviews with administration officials conducted on the condition of anonymity.

While the report credited Netanyahu’s scenario with talking Trump into green-lighting the war, it also said that the US president needed little persuasion.

“Mr. Trump’s hawkish thinking aligned with Mr. Netanyahu’s over many months, more so than even some of the president’s key advisers recognized,” the report said.

Along with Netanyahu’s pitch, the US newspaper noted that during his non-consecutive terms in office, Trump has considered Iran “a uniquely dangerous adversary and was willing to take great risks to hinder the regime’s ability to wage war or to acquire a nuclear weapon,” and that the prime minister’s advocacy complemented the president’s own desire to topple the Islamic Republic.

Despite Netanyahu’s reported assertions, Iran has continued daily ballistic missile launches nearly six weeks after the initial strikes and is still assessed to have enough missiles and launchers to do so for an extended period. It also immediately moved to block the Strait of Hormuz, causing a global energy crisis, and has carried out thousands of missile and drone attacks on nearly all of its neighbors.

Additionally, it was apparently said that Mossad had predicted that the Iranian protest movement would be reignited, with the spy agency playing a role, allowing the Iranian opposition to take power amid an intensive campaign of airstrikes.

The report said the Israeli team also suggested Kurdish fighters could enter Iran from Iraq in a ground operation. This plan, which was also reported by Channel 12 news last week, was pulled by the White House after various leaks to the media, lobbying by allies, and wariness among the Kurds themselves.

According to The New York Times, CIA Director John Ratcliffe told a meeting of top US officials a day after Netanyahu’s February 11 presentation that the views on potential regime change were “farcical.”

Rubio then reportedly said: “In other words, it’s bullshit.”

When Trump asked Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, for his opinion, the top military official reportedly told the president that the plan from the Israelis appeared overblown.

Caine reportedly told Trump that such boisterous assessments were “standard operating procedure for the Israelis,” and that Israel’s planning is “not always well-developed.”

“They know they need us, and that’s why they’re hard-selling,” Caine reportedly said.

A very quick war

The report specified that Trump appeared most interested in killing the supreme leader Ali Khamenei and delivering a blow to the regime’s military capabilities, with other aspects of the plan, including sparking an uprising and regime change, less relevant.

“Over the following days, General Caine shared with Mr. Trump and others the alarming military assessment that a major campaign against Iran would drastically deplete stockpiles of American weaponry, including missile interceptors, whose supply had been strained after years of support for Ukraine and Israel. General Caine saw no clear path to quickly replenishing these stockpiles,” the report said.

It added that Caine noted the “enormous difficulty” of securing Hormuz if Iran moved to block it, though Trump dismissed such a possibility, believing that the regime would “capitulate before it came to that.”

“The president appeared to think it would be a very quick war — an impression that had been reinforced by the tepid response to the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities in June,” the Times said.

The newspaper added that while Caine’s colleagues believed the military official thought war with Iran was a bad idea, he did not tell Trump his opinion on the matter, believing his role was to provide Trump with options, not sway policy.

Additionally, far-right media personality Tucker Carlson made several trips over the past year to visit Trump’s Oval Office, during which he repeatedly lobbied against military conflict with Iran. According to the report, Trump replied: “I know you’re worried about it, but it’s going to be OK.”

When Carlson asked the president how he was so sure, Trump said: “Because it always is.”

Situation Room

When it came time to actually green-light the plan, Trump held a “final” Situation Room meeting on February 26, two days before the US and Israel ultimately launched their attacks.

Given the extreme sensitivity of the topic, several senior cabinet secretaries were kept from the meeting, namely Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.

At the meeting, which only lasted some 90 minutes, Vice President JD Vance, who made his opposition to military action with Iran well known in previous discussions, reportedly told Trump: “You know I think this is a bad idea, but if you want to do it, I’ll support you.”

White House communications director Steven Cheung also voiced concern, laying out what he saw as a likely “public relations fallout,” the Times added. Among his concerns was the fact that Trump specifically campaigned on not involving the US in any new wars.

Additionally, Cheung reportedly wondered how the administration would be able to “explain away” the fact that it had repeatedly insisted that Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated” after the US strikes on three facilities last June, while now saying that it had to act to remove Iran’s “imminent” nuclear threat.

According to the report, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth suggested that Trump should strike, while Rubio cautioned against a major operation, saying: “If our goal is regime change or an uprising, we shouldn’t do it. But if the goal is to destroy Iran’s missile program, that’s a goal we can achieve.”

“I think we need to do it,” Trump then told the room. Less than a day later, Trump gave the official go-ahead, saying: “Operation Epic Fury is approved. No aborts. Good luck.”